Opening Statement from October 2015 Intelligent Investor Nov 9, 2015
Opening Statement from October 2015 Intelligent Investor Originally published on October 7, 2015 Review of the Past 12 Months First, let’s summarize our assessment and guidance from the past 12 months. Although we have remained bullish on the US stock market for several years, approximately one year ago we began advising investors to gradually raise cash selectively and on strength. Our rational for this investment strategy was based on our belief that global risks were increasing at a...
Opening Statement from the October 2015 CCPM Forecaster Nov 6, 2015
Opening Statement from the October 2015 CCPM Forecaster Originally published on October 4, 2015 On September 18th the Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged in accord with our expectations. Notably, the Fed’s mention of weak inflation caused commodities and equities to sell off due to deflation fears. With little surprise, emerging market equities rallied after the Fed made its announcement (rising rates in the US would lead to more capital outflows from...
Opening Statement from the September 2015 CCPM Forecaster Oct 4, 2015
Opening Statement from the September 2015 CCPM ForecasterOriginally published on August 30, 2015 China and Yuan DevaluationTwo days after reporting a huge decline (8.3%) in exports for the month of July, China devalued the yuan by 2% on August 10. However, this alone was not the sole reason for the devaluation. China has also been experiencing sizable capital outflows due to the yuan strength. Thus, the devaluation was appropriate because it makes Chinese exports more competitive, reduces...
Opening Statement from the August 2015 CCPM Forecaster Aug 28, 2015
Opening Statement from the August 2015 CCPM Forecaster Originally published on August 2, 2015 As we have been discussing in the Intelligent Investor, it is very important period to pay close attention to commodities price trends in order to understand the overall global macroeconomic picture. This will help investors understand interest rates, inflation and economic growth trends, all of which will assist in securities valuation, asset allocation and investment management. As one example,...
Opening Statement from the July 2015 Dividend Gems Aug 15, 2015
Opening Statement from the July 2015 Dividend Gems Originally published on July 19, 2015 In the November 2014 Intelligent Investor we surmised the globe was likely to enter a new economic and investment period within one to three years. Over the next several months we witnessed some unprecedented events. In mid December Russia boosted its short term interest rates from 10.5% to a record high 17% in attempt to curb the collapsing rouble. On January 15, 2015, the Swiss central bank removed the...
Opening Statement from the July 2015 CCPM Forecaster Aug 4, 2015
Opening Statement from the July 2015 CCPM Forecaster Originally published on July 5, 2015 Alert traders were rewarded on June 28/29 after Greece rejected the troika’s bailout terms. Thereafter, Prime Minister Tsipras opted for a referendum on July 5 to allow Greek voters to decide their fate. Keeping in tradition with a Greek drama, Tsipras and Finance Minister Varoufakis are advising voters to vote “No,” positioning this as a victory for Greece. A “No” vote...
Release of the June 2015 Global Economic Analysis to Members Jul 27, 2015
The June 2015 Global Economic Analysis is a 40 minute video presentation that was originally prepared for subscribers to the Intelligent Investor and Market Forecaster. We just added this presentation to the Member 2015 video folder.
Release of Two Additional Global Economic Presentations from December 2014 Jul 18, 2015
Recently we added the to the Member 2015 Video Folder. I also have decided to add two additional audio supplements which were part of the original analysis in December 2014.
Opening Statement from the June 2015 Dividend Gems Jul 17, 2015
December 2014 Global Economic Analysis Has Been Released to Members Jul 17, 2015
The December 2014 Global Economic Analysis and Forecast which was originally provided to subscribers of the Intelligent Investor and Market Forecaster on December 14, 2014 has just been added to the Member 2015 Video Folder.
Opening Statement from the June 2015 CCPM Forecaster Jul 8, 2015
Opening Statement from the May 2015 issue of Dividend Gems Jun 20, 2015
Opening Statement from the May 2015 issue of Dividend GemsFirst published on May 17, 2015 for subscribers to Dividend Gems Our suspicions of an improvement in Q1 earnings has come to fruition. The latest data show that S&P 500 has flipped from what was expected to be a slight decline in year over year earnings of 0.1% to a gain of 4.7%. Much of this shift in earnings growth occurred over the past few weeks. Thus, we feel the recent new highs made in the S&P 500 have been due to this...
Opening Statement from the May 2015 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Jun 9, 2015
Opening Statement from the May 2015 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) First published on May 6, 2015 for subscribers to the Intelligent Investor After soaring for months, the biotech and healthcare sectors have taken a beating as of late. This correction has adversely affected the blue chip healthcare securities on our Recommended list. In contrast, the Energy sector continues to build upon its rally, which adds to forward earnings momentum.With most companies having reported Q1 earnings, things...
Opening Statement from the May 2015 CCPM Forecaster Jun 4, 2015
Opening Statement from the May 2015 CCPM Forecaster First published on May 3, 2015 for subscribers to the CCPM Forecaster We see no material changes in the global economy relative to the past few months. Although we do not anticipate the weakness in Europe, Latin America, South Africa, Russia, Australia, Canada and many parts of Asia to subside anytime real soon, we believe many of these economies are likely to show some relative strength in the second half of this year. It is not difficult...
Opening Statement from the April 2015 CCPM Forecaster May 11, 2015
Opening Statement from the April 2015 CCPM Forecaster First published on April 5, 2015 for subscribers to the CCPM Forecaster ...All of this aside, the fact is that we see no deviations from the sentiment we reached last year; that of a new economic period on the horizon. In some regards, this sentiment can be traced back to early 2011 when we first warned of a deflation in the commodities bubble. Moving forward, traders should monitor the dollar with more vigilance in order to help determine...
Opening Statement from the March 2015 CCPM Forecaster Apr 25, 2015
Opening Statement from the March 2015 CCPM Forecaster First published on March 1, 2015 for subscribers to the CCPM Forecaster After soaring for months, the dollar has recently experienced some price consolidation. The dollars’ current resting stage has enabled the Canadian and Australian dollars to form a short term bottom. The dollar’s relative weakness has also impacted crude oil pricing. Rather than improvements in supply demand, we believe crude oil pricing has rallied largely...
Opening Statement from the February 2015 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Mar 7, 2015
The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared by more than 300 points today, after testing the important 17,000 support the previous day in early morning trading. We do not attribute the rally to much other than a technical bounce which was enhanced by the first definitive rally in crude oil since the collapse in pricing began in the summer of 2014. Today’s jump in crude pricing extended the streak to four days of consecutive gains. Meanwhile, the dollar began a much needed retracement. Gold...
Predictions & Insights from America's Financial Apocalypse
The following represents a brief list of accurate forecasts made in America's Financial Apocalypse. This list will be updates periodically.
Another Research Report Added to Member Library Feb 25, 2015
Global Economic Analysis Dec 2014 (Excerpts) Feb 25, 2015
Mike Shows You How Clueless the IMF Is Feb 16, 2015
For some time now we have been emphasizing the growing momentum in the U.S.. economy relative to the rest of the world. The recent (preliminary) Q4 GDP growth of 5% year over year confirms this trend is alive and well. As you can imagine, it also adds to the already strong bullish trend seen in the US dollar.The strength seen in the U.S. economy is by no means sufficient to reverse the slide in commodities. With China continuing to show signs of weakness, Japan and Brazil in a recession, and...
Opening Statement from the January 2015 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Feb 3, 2015
Opening Statement from the January 2015 Intelligent Investor (Part 1)First published on January 4, 2015 for subscribers to the Intelligent Investor For some time now we have been emphasizing the growing momentum in the U.S. economy relative to the rest of the world. The recent (preliminary) Q4 GDP growth of 5% year over year confirms this trend is alive and well. As you can imagine, it also adds to the already strong bullish trend seen in the US dollar.The strength seen in the U.S. economy is...
Release of October 2014 Global Economic Analysis Excerpts Jan 21, 2015
Opening Statement from the December 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Jan 7, 2015
Opening Statement from the December 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1)First published on December 5, 2014 for subscribers to the Intelligent Investor Despite persistent and widespread claims of a global recovery, very few fundamental improvements have been made in the world’s most worrisome economies. It is very possible that we will soon enter into a new period of increasing macroeconomic risk. We continue to stand by our forecast of 450 for the CRB Index. We first set this price...
Global Economic Analysis - Nov 9, 2014 (Excerpts) Dec 21, 2014
Opening Statement from the November 2014 issue of Dividend Gems Dec 20, 2014
Opening Statement from the November 2014 issue of Dividend Gems First published on November 17, 2014 for subscribers to Dividend Gems Over the past several months economic headwinds from around the world have materialized largely as we anticipated. From our perspective there have been very few if any surprises to speak of. Accordingly, the capital markets have generally behaved in a fairly predictable manner. Even in circumstances when the capital markets have responded irrationally, most of...
Opening Statement from the November 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Dec 10, 2014
Opening Statement from the November 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1)First published on November 5, 2014 for subscribers to the Intelligent Investor Over the past several months economic headwinds from around the world have materialized largely as we anticipated. From our perspective there have been very few if any surprises to speak of. As a result the capital markets have behaved in a fairly predictable manner. Even in circumstances whereby the capital markets responded irrationally, most...
Opening Statement from the October 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Nov 3, 2014
Opening Statement from the October 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) First published on October 5, 2014 for subscribers to the Intelligent Investor As expected, the commodities market continues to reflect the realities of a weakening global economy. Without substantial economic stimulus, global economic momentum is likely to keep downward pressure on commodities pricing moving into 2015, aside from any short or intermediate term price retracements. We first discussed the deflation of the...
Opening Statement from September 2014 Dividend Gems Oct 20, 2014
Opening Statement from the September 2014 issue of Dividend Gems First published on September 17, 2014 for subscribers to Dividend Gems While much of the global economy continues to lose steam, the US and the UK remain atop of the advanced world with improving conditions each month. Recently, economists revised UK economic growth for 2014 and 2015 upward. The US economy recently posted strong manufacturing and service sector PMI data, each one now at multi year highs. Moreover, earnings for...
Opening Statement September 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Oct 5, 2014
Despite an overheated property market and a large consumer and government debt burden, the UK continues to deliver strong economic growth which... Again, we feel that the ECB will eventually begin its own asset buying program (similar to that in the USA)... As Japan moves forward with the third phase of “Abenomics” the proposed structural reforms...Aside from the relatively stable economic environment in the US and UK, there is very little good news for commodities bulls. Thus, it...
Opening Statement from August 2014 Dividend Gems Sep 7, 2014
Opening Statement from August 2014 Dividend Gems First published on August 18, 2014 for subscribers to Dividend Gems In line with our expectations, US second quarter GDP came in at 4.0%, well ahead of the 3.1% consensus. Moreover, first quarter 2.9% GDP contraction was revised upward to 2.1%. Over the same period the US received upbeat jobs and manufacturing data, along with a continuation of positive PMI data from China, India and Taiwan. Thus, when taken together, one would expect the US...
Opening Statement from August 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Sep 3, 2014
Opening Statement from August 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) First published on August 4, 2014 for subscribers to the Intelligent Investor As expected, the “Iraq trade” has faded for now. Meanwhile, recent upbeat economic data from the US and emerging market economies (China, Brazil and India) has done little to temper the retracement in the US stock market.
List of Forecasts from America's Financial Apocalypse
Here are just a few predictions made by Mike Stathis in America's Financial Apocalypse.
Opening Statement from July 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 3) Jul 28, 2014
Opening Statement from July 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 3) First published on July 10, 2014 for subscribers to the Intelligent Investor The recommendations provided in the June issue add to our streak of accurate trading guidance for nearly every one of the securities on the recommended list. In the Market Forecasting section of the June issue, we concluded that the US markets would trend higher. This was in contrast to our May forecast whereby we concluded that the market would most...
Opening Statement from June 2014 Dividend Gems Jul 1, 2014
Opening Statement from June 2014 Dividend GemsFirst published on June 17, 2014 for subscribers to Dividend Gems Over the past several years we have discussed that the IMF has had a tendency to deliver overly optimistic estimates for economic growth, whether we are talking about the United States, European Union, China or Brazil. Consistent with this trend, the IMF’s recent downward revision for US economic growth in 2014 (from 2.8% to 2.0%) is more in line with our previous...
Opening Statement from June 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 3) Jun 28, 2014
Opening Statement from June 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 3)First published on June 4, 2014 for subscribers to the Intelligent Investor Thus far our market forecast has been very accurate even without considering some of the most influential variables. Once we factor in these variables, we feel the market forecasting and securities guidance provided in this publication has been extremely accurate. We hope you agree because that means we are all on the same page.
Opening Statement from June 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Jun 26, 2014
Opening Statement from June 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1)First published on June 1, 2014 for subscribers to the Intelligent Investor Last month we highlighted the downward revision in Q1 GDP. Recently, the second revision was released and was even worse. On May 29, 2014, revised data for GDP Q1 2014 showed the US economy contracted by 1%, versus the previous revision showing the economy expanded by 0.1%, which was down from the initial reading of a 1.8% expansion.
May 2014 Opening Statement from Dividend Gems Jun 17, 2014
Originally Published on May 18, 2014 from the May 2014 Dividend Gems One of the primary variables responsible for market uncertainty is earnings growth estimates. Obviously these estimates are always being revised. Therefore, what might look like an undervalued security or stock market today could become overvalued tomorrow if earnings estimates change sufficiently, earnings are missed or the forward guidance is negative. This is a very important point to always keep in mind. At the same...
May 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Opening Statement Jun 17, 2014
Opening Statement from May 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1)First published on May 5, 2014 for subscribers to the Intelligent Investor We have been discussing the relative progress made in the US and euro zone economies, as well as our warnings of some excessive optimism which is now being revealed. Recently, US GDP for Q1 was revised downward from 1.8% to 0.1%. The huge miss was in part a reflection of unforeseen weather conditions. But it was also the result of overly generous estimates.
Mike Stathis Offers to Bet Peter Schiff Money that Hyperinflation Will Not Occur Jun 6, 2014
We recently ran across this excerpt from an interview given by Mike in June 2012, discussing the Rape of Greece by the Jewish bankers. You sure aren't going to hear this from the Kosher media because it represents the truth.
Video: Educating a Libertarian Hack from Harvard Apr 20, 2014
Normally, these libertarian goofballs lack sufficient knowledge to put forth an argument in support of their pro fascist views. By now you probably know who the libertarian goofballs are...the Peter Schiffs and Ron Pauls of the world as well as their naive lackeys. But these clowns are merely the cheerleaders of the libertarian movement. The real leaders are those who rule from the sidelines and they have big pockets. And they fund all kinds of propaganda, from so called think tanks to...
Opening Statement from April 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Apr 12, 2014
Opening Statement from April 2014 Intelligent Investor (Part 1)First published on April 2, 2014 for subscribers to the Intelligent Investor Over the past couple of months we have highlighted relative improvements in the US economy. We have even seen some modest improvements from the EU, but this region continues to face numerous challenges. Although we have seen some newer data reflecting weaker than expected activity in the US economy, this has not surprised us because we had previously...
March 2014 Opening Statement Intelligent Investor Part 1 Mar 17, 2014
It is always important to remember that salesmen always have reasons why something they sell or promote will go up as a way to get their audience to buy it. But they rarely if ever discuss the reasons why it could fall in price. That is why it’s called sales. Do not allow yourself to be sold to. Successful investors don’t follow cheerleaders. They follow unbiased analysts who have established credibility and a consistently good track record.
Mike Stathis Schools Peter Schiff on the Bankruptcy of Detroit Feb 21, 2014
Today, Detroit's emergency manager announced a plan for the city to emerge out of bankruptcy. Throughout Detroit's solvency crisis, investment pundits and other hacks and lackeys have spread rumors and made false conclusions as to the cause.
January 2014 Intelligent Investor Opening Statement (Part 2) Feb 3, 2014
Unfortunately we did not experience a reasonable sell off that would have encouraged investors to reevaluate risk, valuation and other variables going into the New Year. On the other hand, this all but guarantees an exaggerated sell off in the stock market once disappointments materialize. However, this period is likely to represent yet another buying opportunity.
January 2014 Intelligent Investor Opening Statement (Part 1) Feb 2, 2014
Originally published on January 5, 2014 in the January 2014 Intelligent Investor Although the European Union continues to gravitate towards a deflationary environment, there have been modest improvements made in recent weeks. In brief, both consumer and investor sentiment have improved which has been reflected in the credit and equities markets, respectively. However, the region’s chronically high unemployment rate remains of key concern.
2013 Mid-Year Global Economic Analysis Dec 2, 2013
You have probably heard what the clowns in the media have said about the economy. Unfortunately, the media is littered with misguided salesmen like Peter Schiff, Mark Faber and other gold dealers, who clearly have no idea what they're talking about. What they do have are agendas. Then you have pundits who are always late to the party. Ask yourself the following question… Have you ever gotten a true sense of the reality of the U.S. or global economy by listening to the clowns in the media?
Global Economic Analysis: November 25, 2013 Overview Nov 26, 2013
We have released a nice 10 minute video presentation summarizing the economic landscape since the 2008 financial crisis. Included in this overview is a consideration as to where the US economy and stock market are headed in 2014. Mike also discusses whether the US stock market is overvalued or not and what will determine whether the market will keep rising going into 2014. This presemtation is restricted to newsletter subsribers and website members.
Opening Statement from November Intelligent Investor (Part 3) Nov 17, 2013
Last month we reminded readers about the earnings weakness we have been discussing since early in the year. Specifically, we felt that the second half of 2013 would be met with greater than expected weakness. In addition, we felt that the global economy would weaken in the second half of 2013. This sentiment was in complete opposition with nearly every major economic organization and Wall Street firm. In fact, every Wall Street firm, the Federal Reserve Banking System and the IMF agreed that...
Global Economic Overview (Video Presentation) Nov 14, 2013
We have just released a 2 part video presentation covering some select topics for discussion and analysis. Each video of this 2 part video series is approximately 40 minutes in length. This video series is FREE for subscribers to one or more of our newsletters, all website Members in good standing (they have paid for an annual subscription) and all Clients who have used us for consulting over the past 12 months. Some of the Topics Covered in these Videos: 1. Market Valuation Considerations2....
Opening Statement from November Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Nov 11, 2013
As previously discussed, the recent sell off in bonds has been due to the outlandish response to statements made by the Fed. Regardless of the fact that both the Federal Reserve and investors blew it, the fact is that the only thing that matters is the perception of investors. Much like everything else, in the investment world, perception and expectations are everything.
Opening Statement from November Intelligent Investor (Part 3) Nov 8, 2013
Over the past several months we have been warning about what we felt would be earnings weakness. Since June, S&P earnings growth for Q3 has now been slashed by more than xxx. While this may seem alarming, the current expected earnings growth rate of xxx for Q3 is still healthy. However, we feel that...
October Intelligent Investor Opening Statement (Part 1) Nov 4, 2013
In mid September, the Federal Reserve decided not to begin tapering as we predicted. As you will recall, we have been warning readers since May that the US economy was weakening. This was in contrast to the assessment made by the Federal Reserve, which was rather upbeat regarding the progress made in the economy.
Comments on the Debt Ceiling Debacle and Myths Regarding the Debt Crisis and Obamacare Oct 8, 2013
Comments from Mike Stathis Regarding the Fed's QE Decision (Video Presentation) Sep 18, 2013
In this video, Mike discusses an aspect of the Fed’s recent decision to hold off on scaling back on its bond buying program that you probably have not heard or read about.
August 2013 Global Economic Analysis (US) Sep 4, 2013
Recently, the Fed stated that the economy had weakened somewhat relative to its previous assessment in late May. We had already warned that the Fed would need to readdress investors once the consensus realized the economy was not as strong as they previous thought. Here, we take a look at the evidence supporting our conclusions.
August 2013 Global Economic Analysis (Overview) Sep 2, 2013
The emerging markets have continued to weaken along with Europe, as the US economy and stock market gain more momentum. India was the first of the three major emerging markets we cover to show weakness nearly two years ago, followed by Brazil several months later. Over the past three years, capital inflows have been at the forefront of economic woes in many nations throughout the globe. However, India’s problems were largely internal due to a complete failure in leadership, business...
The Fed Blew It Like We Predicted Aug 30, 2013
Last month we discussed the fact that we felt the Federal Reserve had expressed too much optimism with regards to the progression of the economic recovery in the US. In addition, we also discussed the fact that investors exaggerated the statements made by the Fed in its May 22 meeting. The combined effect of these misinterpretations resulted in a spike in treasury yields and a massive sell off in the bond market through July.
Earnings Revisions and Guidance Aug 30, 2013
Although we have seen some noteworthy earnings disappointments for Q2, this has been overshadowed by overall impressive results as well as upbeat estimates for Q3 and even Q4. In short, the US stock market remains strong, confirmed by impressive earnings and reasonable valuation.
What Are Earnings Telling Us About the Future Direction of the Stock Market? Jul 16, 2013
Since we first published The we have added more charts and content, so check it out! Click . We have been warning about what we felt would be a greater than expected weakness in earnings. This trend is now beginning to materialize. Thus far, this greater than expected earnings weakness appears to have been overshadowed by speculation as to when the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its bond buying program. Ironically, this speculative behavior by investors has led to soaring Treasury...
Stathis on Commodities, Gold and Treasury Yields Jul 10, 2013
July 2013 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Opening StatementOriginally Published on July 7, 2013 The correction in the commodities bubble continues, as overall global demand continues to weaken. The impact of a weakening global economy on the commodities market is especially evident when one considers the current situation in China, which is now revealing some manifestations of an economic slowdown. We should not forget that at the beginning of 2013, everyone was talking about the strength of...
Stathis Discusses the Fate of Gold and the Global Economy Jul 8, 2013
As we have been discussing for several months, the global economy continues to weaken. Although the establish economists have been forecasting a stronger second half for 2013, we have been warning our readers and other clients about further weakness. In fact we have discussed that the global economy has largely weakened during the second quarter of this year relative to the first quarter. Recent data from China shows that this is precisely what is happening... continue reading, sign...
2013 Mid-Year Global Economic Analysis (Video Presentation) Jun 9, 2013
April 2013 Intelligent Investor Part 1 Opening Statement May 21, 2013
Recently I wrote an article discussing reasons for the retreat in gold pricing. As I have done countless times in the past, I pointed out the common myth held by gold bugs that gold protects against inflation. By now you should realize that gold does not protect against inflation. Anyone who has bothered to examine the data will confirm this. Even if gold did serve as a hedge against inflation, the fact is that there has been very little inflation to speak of despite the large increase in the...
Opening Statement from March 2013 Global Economic Analysis Mar 26, 2013
In this 11 page overview we discuss the health of the U.S. economy, including comparisons of its real credit rating with the rest of the world. We also discuss corporate earnings, what to expect from the stock market, the housing market, the job market, and the federal budget issues. We continue with the Canadian economy, the housing market and the oil and gas sector. Next, we discuss Europe, with specific mention of Germany, France, Cyprus, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands....
VIDEO: Stathis Schools Peter Schiff in Economics Mar 12, 2013
Hell, someone had to do it.
The Federal Budget and Taxation Feb 10, 2013
As detailed in many issues of this publication for some time now (as well as in Americaas Financial Apocalypse), the U.S. government must raise sufficient revenues needed to pay off its enormous debt obligations. In addition, it must determine how it plans to funds its entitlements program. Even with planned cuts to entitlements, Washington will need more revenues to fund these programs. The largest concern is Medicare.
A Closer Look at the Wealth and Income Disparity Feb 7, 2013
The large wealth and income inequality in the U.S. has continued to widen for nearly three decades. Over the past few years the disparity has become even larger. For instance, the top 1% of income earners in the U.S. account for 21% of aggregate income.
A Closer Look at Poverty Feb 3, 2013
Although poverty rates have been high in the United States for over a decade, they have increased appreciably since the economic crisis. As first detailed in America's Financial Apocalypse and discussed thereafter in previous publications, the official poverty rate has been suppressed by numerous means.
A Closer Look at the Federal Budget Jan 30, 2013
Each year, Washington spends money to provide a variety of services. Ideally, Washington should only spend as much as it takes in so that no deficit is created. But of course this is pure fantasy.
Opening Statement from the January 2013 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Jan 26, 2013
Fiscal cliff negotiations turned out to be a disaster. As you will recall, the fiscal cliff referred to automatic expiration of numerous tax breaks and expenditures. It was meant to serve as an economic emergency brake to address medium term deficit and budget issues in case Washington did not act to alleviate expenditures on its own. Instead of allowing expenditures and tax breaks to expire, Washington essentially abolished the cliff and made a few minor tweaks.
Opening Statement from the January 2013 Intelligent Investor (Part 2) Jan 26, 2013
As the Fed continues with quantitative easing, commodities continue to sell off as expected. This makes sense if we consider the primary force driving commodities right now is the global economic slowdown. Thus, weak demand has served to neutralize much of the potential inflationary force created by quantitative easing.
Opening Statement from the January 2013 Intelligent Investor (Part 3) Jan 26, 2013
Last Friday the Labor Department reported that non farm payrolls grew by 155,000 jobs last month, slightly below November's level.Last Tuesday marked the commencement of Q4 earnings, with Alcoa meeting estimates on higher than expected revenues and raising 2013 global aluminum demand. This is important because it indicates that China is stabilizing. Modest progress continues to be made in several sectors in the U.S. economy including housing and construction.
Washington's War against America's Middle Class Jan 22, 2013
I have been discussing the adverse impact of U.S. trade policy on America’s working and middle class for several years now. I began this discussion in America’s Financial Apocalypse.
Opening Statement from the December 2012 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Jan 21, 2013
Little has changed since we released the last monthly publication. The global economy continues to weaken. Europe is sinking deeper into recession and even Germany is now most likely headed for a contraction.
November Intelligent Investor Opening Statement (Part 1) Jan 19, 2013
Based on the performance of several stocks considered to be very reliant on the outcome of the election, it appeared that Wall Street had determined at least a few weeks ago that President Obama would win the election.
November Intelligent Investor Opening Statement (Part 2) Jan 19, 2013
One cannot deny that the chart of the Dow looks impressive since March 2009. This is by no coincidence. A trend of record earnings have combined with record low Treasury yields and the safe haven status of U.S. assets to keep the market high. But as we have been warning for a year now, earnings continue to weaken.
The Death of America Jan 10, 2013
In this article, you are going to see what has happened to America, what the future holds and who is responsible for the nation's decline.
Secrets of the Geopolitical Chess Match Jan 4, 2013
In this 14 page article, Mike details the inner workings of how the global game is played, explaining the macroeconomic forces that underlie the risks and merits of investing in the U.S. and other world capital markets. Once you read this article, you will understand how the game is played and you will know more about how things works related to the big picture of investing than virtually every person you have seen on TV discuss investments.
The Damaging Consequences of Free Trade Dec 29, 2012
For over three decades, proponents of free trade have promised Americans more jobs. This promise has not been kept. Ever since NAFTA was signed into law in 1994, developing nations have been on the receiving end of millions of jobs that have left the U.S. soil.The truth of the matter is that free trade was designed to boost corporate profits. And it has achieved this objective with impressive fashion. Thus, because the wealthiest Americans own large numbers of corporate shares, free trade has...
August 2012 Intelligent Investor Opening Statement and Employment Picture Dec 21, 2012
We have released a PDF of the Opening Statement as well as the Employment analysis from the August 2012 Intelligent Investor.
Fiscal Cliff Discussion from August 2012 Intelligent Investor Dec 21, 2012
We have released a presentation on the Fiscal Cliff situation first published in the August 2012 Intelligent Investor.
Household Savings, Consumer Spending and Bankers Dec 18, 2012
Economists, analysts, policy makers and of course central bankers are always paying attention to the household savings rate data for a variety of reasons. Regardless of the reason for their interest, the end result is the same. Bankers want to do all they can to discourage savings so that consumers will load up on credit, thereby holding them hostage to interest payments.
Free Trade and the Suicide of a Superpower (Part 2) Oct 22, 2012
When I wrote in 2006, I did not want to be accused of being overly pessimistic, even though such an accusation would not likely hold merit since my analysis was based on extensive data. Nevertheless, to safeguard against such a criticism, in the final passage of this book, I wrote that once confronted with the elements of America’s Second Great Depression, Washington would make the changes required to prevent the indefinite demise of the U.S. However, I knew that these changes would not...
October 2012 Economic and Market Overview Oct 17, 2012
The recent unemployment data showed a decline in the jobless rate from 8.1% to 7.8%, but this is no reason to become optimistic. This data is most likely an anomaly due to statistical errors, and will probably move back to the 8.0% mark in coming months.No, it is not as Jack Welch has claimed. The BLS did not manipulate the data by any more than it already does in order to give Obama a boost in ratings after a so called poor debate performance against republican presidential candidate Mitt...
Corporate Taxes, Fascism and Trickle-Down Deceit Sep 14, 2012
When it comes to trade policy, monetary policy and foreign policy, both parties always agree. They are going to ship U.S. jobs overseas, allow the Federal Reserve and Wall Street crime syndicate to commit massive fraud, and fight wars for Israel. Regardless who they vote for, Americans always lose. Thus, heading to the voting booth serves no purpose other than to endorse America’s fascist regime. On rare occasion when fraud has been exposed, none of the establishment crime bosses goes...
Who First Alerted the Public About For-Profit College Fraud? Sep 12, 2012
The list of accurate forecasts and leading edge insights presented in Americaas Financial Apocalypse is too long to list.As an example of the comprehensiveness of this book, we will post an excerpt exposing the for profit college fraud that has recently become a topic of debate by Washington and others.
More Lies & Deceit from Bankers & Economists Aug 25, 2012
The Federal Reserve and Washington are already playing more games to manipulate assets and wealth in order to enrich corporate giants and the banking cartel. The price for this theft will be felt in years to come by the majority of Americans, who only realize how they were defrauded many years after the fact.
Record Profits and the Huge Sucking Sound of American Jobs Aug 24, 2012
As a result of the financial crisis of 2008, U.S. corporate profits declined to the lowest level on record in the fourth quarter of that year, accounting for only 4.5% of GDP. The collapse in profits led to the largest decline of the S&P 500 Index in any calendar year in history, with investors losing 45.5%. This $8 trillion plunge in wealth wiped out the possibility of retirement for millions of Americans who had already endured a similar stock market meltdown only eight years earlier. This...
August 2012 Economic Overview (Part 1) Aug 23, 2012
The U.S. economy added 163,000 jobs in July, beating consensus estimates. This recent data raised the average job additions over the last five months to 106,200. This number is just under the rate required to keep up with population growth. In other words, there has been no net job growth for several months. This compares to a much more impressive monthly rate of 252,000 for the three months from November 2011 to February 2012. In addition, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 8.3% in July...
August 2012 Economic Overview (Part 2) Aug 23, 2012
Most economists expect the economy to pick up speed in the second half of 2012, but we do not feel this is likely. The external risks alone threaten to at least keep growth in the U.S. subdued, as the spillover effects of the recession in Europe begin to be felt in coming months. This is something we warned about several months ago. Thus, we have previously factored these projections into our market forecasts. Regardless, it is important to take note of the short term disconnect between stock...
The Most Comprehensive Global Economic Report in the World
We recently released what we believe is the single most comprehensive and insightful global economic analysis research report in the world.
The Quote of the Year Goes to Charles Munger When Speaking about Gold Jul 15, 2012
aoegold is a great thing to sew onto your garments if youare a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939 but civilized people donat buy gold a they invest in productive businesses.a
Opening Statement from the July 2012 Intelligent Investor Jul 12, 2012
The U.S. economy added just 80,000 jobs in June, bringing the average over the last four months to 92,000. This compares to a monthly rate of 252,000 for the three months from November to February. Meanwhile, U.S. GDP for 2012 Q1 remained at 1.9% after the first phase of revisions. Clearly, GDP is set to fall through 2012 from this very modest growth rate.
The Final Greek Tragedy: Theft of a Nation by Bankers Jun 29, 2012
In order to understand the progression of the economic and political chaos in Greece, one must review several key events from recent years, all while reading between the lines from official statements made by the global banking syndicate and their puppet politicians in both the EU and U.S.
Global Economic Analysis Summary June 2012 (Part 2) Jun 28, 2012
The debt burden of nations remains the top focus of investors. If we examine data from the previous two decades, the rate of debt growth in the U.K. is particularly striking, followed by that in Japan. Also notice how Spainas debt soared after 2000.When compared to advanced nations, emerging nations entered the global collapse with a much lower level of debt, as seen in the second chart. This cushioned the severity of the economic devastation in emerging nations. Perhaps more important,...
Global Economic Analysis Summary June 2012 (Part 3) Jun 28, 2012
In early 2010 we summarized our prognosis for advanced nations, with a focus on the European UnionaaoeCombined with the very sluggish economy, the austerity measures that must be taken in the EU (and soon within the U.S., UK and Japan) threaten to reign in a very long period of deflation. However, we do not expect deflation to present as much of a problem in the U.S. due largely to the dollar oil link. This enables the Federal Reserve can keep printing dollars to pump up the U.S....
Global Economic Analysis Summary June 2012 (Part 1) Jun 27, 2012
For nearly three years we have been discussing important global macroeconomic trends in order to assess the progress and risks of what has been labeled a global economic aoerecovery.aThe illusion accounting for these improvements was created by a global release of trillions of dollars.One of the most prominent characteristics of this aoerecoverya is that it has been lop sided, with advanced nations showing very little progress on many fronts. While Australia and Canada have fared relatively...
Global Economic Overview, May 2012 May 14, 2012
As we enter a new cycle of global macroeconomic risk, the U.S. stock market continues to resist being pulled into the euro zone vortex.
Economic Focus: Canada Apr 19, 2012
In this report, we analyze Canada's economic health, its long term fiscal challenges and examine whether the nation is experiencing a real estate bubble. In this part of the discussion, we dissect the inner workings of the Canadian real estate finance sector, pointing to striking differences and similarities with the U.S. Finally, we discuss the risks of an economic slowdown that could pose as a challenge for Canada, independent of shocks to the euro zone, as well as from a slowdown in the...
Opening Statement from the January 2012 Intelligent Investor Newsletter Apr 19, 2012
After nearly four years of harsh economic consequences, we have seen little if any progress by the criminal puppets in Washington. Despite the continuous lies from a variety of partisan sources, there has been no real job creation. We have only heard delusions, excuses and lame duck proposals. Without surprise, not one single individual from the economic, academic or media circle has called for the criminal prosecution of countless Wall Street executives for their role in securities fraud...
April 2012 Big Picture Report (Part 1) Apr 8, 2012
In past issues of this publication we have discussed numerous variables we look at when forecasting the market. Our work in market forecasting is but one component of the design and implementation of a prudent investment strategy.
December 2011 Economic Overview Dec 15, 2011
Morgan Stanley recently downgraded its forecast for 2012 global growth to 3.5% from 3.8%. Remember in August, Morgan Stanley cut its global forecast for GDP growth down to 3.9% (from 4.2%) and 3.8% (from 4.5%) for 2011 and 2012, respectively.
The Real Reason Why Unemployment Will Remain High Dec 3, 2011
It took quite a long time for Washington to finally concede something that was apparent; the nation’s excessively high unemployment rate would remain elevated for several years. But their admission has come with a twist.
The State of Poverty in the US Oct 21, 2011
According to the U.S. Census, in the first quarter of 2010, nearly half of the population (48.5%) lived in a household that had at least one member who received some kind of government benefit.
October 2011 Global Economic Summary Oct 8, 2011
The incompetency of Washington was most recently demonstrated by the debt ceiling drama. Now the dog and pony show staged by the ECB, EU and IMF has added to waning consumer and investor sentiment across the globe to create a crisis in confidence.
The Reality of the Debt Ceiling Drama Jul 31, 2011
Over the past several weeks, the media has had a field day covering the debt ceiling talks between both political parties. Itas been dominates news headlines for more than a month. Prior to the latest distraction by the media, the focus was Casey Anthony, followed by Congressman Weiner, then Casey Anthony again.
Economic Hightlights from July Jul 31, 2011
Although the global economy has mounted a superficial rebound from the trough hit in 2009, increasing risks remain, both intermediate and longer term.
Cheerleading from IMF Won't Rescue the Global Economy Jul 29, 2011
Below we have posted the most recent revisions to economic data, including estimates through 2011 (Japan and Spain) and 2012 (U.S. and China). It will be interesting to see when the IMF decides to issue more accurate economic projections that are in line with reality.
2011 Mid-Year Economic Update Jun 17, 2011
U.S. Economy Enters the 42nd Month of Recession Jun 15, 2011
I have discussed the fact that the recession which officially began in December 2007, has not yet ended. Anyone who claims otherwise is either a hack or else has no idea what is going on.
Japan Entering Recession Jun 8, 2011
Over the past few months I have been discussing my view that Wall Street analysts and economists, and global economic consortiums such as the IMF have been underestimating the impact of the earthquakes, tsunami and nuclear meltdown, as well the spillover effect.
Important Economic Data Mar 17, 2011
The PPI rose 1.6% in February, well above the consensus of 0.7%. The bulk of the upside surprise was due to a 3.9% jump in food prices. Notably, the increase in food prices was partly reflected a 48.7% surge in vegetables, which accounts for about 4% of the food index. It should be with little doubt that food prices will continue to increase globally over the next several months.
The Two Most Important Economic Events I am Watching Right Now Mar 2, 2011
Right now I'm focusing on two central bank decisions remaining for this week. The first and most important in my view is that from Brazil. Last week, discussions centered around a 75bp hike. Recall that Brazil raised rates by 50bp just a few weeks ago.
Economic and Commodities Update Released, February 26, 2011 Feb 27, 2011
We just released another update to subscribers of the Intelligent Investor and Market Forecaster newsletters. This 15 page document discusses the implications of numerous recently announced global economic data and news. It also provides an update to the commodities section covered in the February issue of the Intelligent Investor.
Q4 '10 and Annual GDP Data Released (Second Revision) Feb 25, 2011
America's Second Great Depression 2010 Year-end Update (Part 3) Jan 5, 2011
In support of their claims of an economic recovery, Washington cheerleaders and Wall Street hacks continue to focus on ancillary metrics like GDP and corporate profits, all while fudging inflation data.
America's Second Great Depression 2010 Year-end Update (Part 2) Dec 26, 2010
Ever since the summer of 2009, economists from both Washington and Wall Street have told us that an economic recovery was in progress, but the data reveals a strikingly different picture. Some even insisted that a recovery began in late spring.
America's Second Great Depression 2010 Year-End Update (Part 1) Dec 16, 2010
aoeRegarding the Great Depression. Youare right, we did it. Weare very sorry. But thanks to you, we wonat do it again.a
Elements of the Jewish Global Banking Mafia Dec 15, 2010
I have presented this information for you to keep so that he next time someone calls you an anti Semite for saying Jews run the world's banking system, you can back up your claims with facts.
U.S. Economic Analysis from the July 2010 Newsletter Dec 2, 2010
While more than five months have passed since the release of this report, it has been published to demonstrate that real forecasts and accurate insight does not change from day to day, week to week, or month to month.
Rules of the Game Nov 19, 2010
A few months ago, I ran across a typical propaganda piece from Americaas corporate media discussing why U.S. corporations arenat hiring.
Poverty in America: The Big Picture Nov 11, 2010
In Americaas Financial Apocalypse, a book that has been banned by the media, I discussed the many flaws in the calculation of poverty levels within the U.S. First, letas have a look at some excerpts from the book.
Deflation Hype Oct 14, 2010
Before I discuss possibilities of deflation, I wanted to summarize my argument as to why hyperinflation isn’t going to happen in the U.S., as well as the underlying motives behind this myth. I also wanted to address the motive behind the NBER’s recent announcement that the recession ended in June 2009.
Mike Stathis' Track Record Continued Sep 21, 2010
NBER Pressured to Concede an End to the Recession in June 2009 Sep 20, 2010
You might recall an article I wrote a few month ago, discussing ridiculous terminology that has been embraced by every sheep on earth; double dip recession.
Bill Gross Pushing for MORE Bailouts for PIMCO Aug 23, 2010
Two years ago when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were collapsing, former Goldman Sachs CEO and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson repeated the promise of aoeno more bailouts,a so as to calm ...
Moving an Inch Closer Towards a Free Market Economy Aug 4, 2010
A few months ago, IAdiscussed the fact that the U.S. really doesn't have a free market economy, as so many claim. Once you spend some time examining the activities of various industries, this bec...
Double-Dips, Economics and Ice Cream Cones Jul 7, 2010
IAwant to expand on a short discussion from the economic section of the July newsletter.A And IAam making it avaliable for everyone because I want to show you how you are being fooled b...
Is the Dallas Economy Really that Healthy? May 21, 2010
A few weeks ago, I discussed the fact that the media has been fabricating signs of recovery in certain cities across America.A
Europe: Taking the Path Blazed by the U.S. with Similar Consequences to Come May 10, 2010
After the threat of a continued sell off in the global capital markets, leaders of the EU, IMF (and most likely members of the White House) arranged an emergency bailout fund to calm the markets.
Should California Get a Bailout? Apr 15, 2010
As some readers might recall, without budget solutions from the Governor and Legislature, the California State Controller was forced to issue IOUs to several State payees last July in order to...
Would You Celebrate Losing $300 Million? Apr 12, 2010
On Sunday, Dallas celebrated the destruction of a $300 million property; $300 million of taxpayer money down the drain. I'm talking of course about the demolition of Texas Stadium, former home to the ...
The Global Bubble Has Reflated Apr 5, 2010
Back in the Spring of 2009, the World Bank forecast that the global economy would contract by 1.7% that year; the first global contraction since the Great Depression (yet another clear indicator we are in a depression). As it turns out, they were quite conservative (as you would expect). Latest numbers from the World Bank show a decline in global GDP by 2.2% for 2009. As I have alluded to on numerous occasions, it has been much of the developing world (China, Brazil and India) that have...
More Propaganda from Washington's Corporate Media Partner Mar 12, 2010
Last week, Forbes published an article discussing cities across the U.S. "where the recession is ending."AALet me begin in a tone that many of you have come to expect.
The ONLY Man Qualified to Serve as U.S. President in Four Decades Feb 6, 2010
Over the next several days I'm going to write a piece on the man IAfeel was the only qualified presidential candidate in more than four decades, Ross Perot Sr.A
America. What Went Wrong? (Part 1) Jan 28, 2010
As I have detailed with extensive data and accompanying analysis in (2006/expanded and 2007/condensed), America’s once great economy has been gradually transformed into a Ponzi scheme through decades of unfair trade policies that destroyed millions of U.S. jobs.
The Realities of America's Free Market Economy Jan 15, 2010
On many occassions, IAhave made mention of the fact that, despite popular belief, America's economy really does not operate with free market dynamics.
Signs of a Depression Jan 6, 2010
I wanted to remind you not to lose sight of the big picture. Itas advisable to try to make money during an illusion only if you know the reality.
Fiscal Survey of States Oct 24, 2009
I've been working overtime on my soon to be released healthcare book. The problem is that in the editing process, IAkeep running across new information that I can't help but to add.
If You Listen to Economists You Will Go Broke Oct 10, 2009
In my last piece, I think I made it clear that the vast majority of economists are not only clueless, but very dangerous to your financial health. Make no mistake. At best they are broadcasters not forecasters. They’re better equipped working with historians to document events after they’ve happened. Yet, the when reporting what to expect, even after history has shown they always fail to deliver.
Economists Need to Sit Down and Shut Up Oct 7, 2009
I’m really sick and tired of these economists out there who continue to claim that America will not enter a depression. These are the same bozos that have yet to acknowledge the fact that the U.S. is in a recession and has been for several months now. In fact, as I have previously mentioned, I can make a very strong case that the U.S. has been in the early stages of a silent, modest depression for at least two years; at the very least a protracted recession masked by credit. After the...
Is Core Scientific Research in Decline? Oct 6, 2009
In America's Financial Apocalypse (extended 2006 version), IAmade the case for a trend of declining basic research from core scientific disciplines such as chemistry and physics.A I also not...
This is News? Sep 27, 2009
I recently ran across a story that I wanted to show you because I wanted to point out a few things. It was written by the Associated Press, so that means it was syndicated in hundreds of newspapers ac...
America's Financial Apocalypse: It's Not Going Away Anytime Soon Sep 19, 2009
For many years now we’ve all seen the reckless use of taxpayer funds by Washington. This irresponsible and unaccountable waste of tax dollars has been particularly prominent during President Bush’s tenure from billions going to blow up bridges, roads and buildings in Iraq, only to rebuild them to the Department of Homeland Security, which is no more than a joke. Meanwhile, America’s own infrastructure is in badly need of repair, with current estimates anywhere between $1.5...
Gauging Bernanke's Propaganda vs Doomsday Con Men Sep 16, 2009
As I correctly identified a couple of months ago, the propaganda campaign by the media, Washington and Wall Street has been very strong and continues to grow each day.
The Housing Mess the Experts Missed Aug 14, 2009
Games Washington Plays. Trick #4: Off-Balance Financing Aug 2, 2009
As you may recall, in February 2008 President Bush unveiled a whopping $3.1 trillion budget that boost military spending and reduced health benefits for retirees...
Games Washington Plays. Trick #3: Employment Data Jul 31, 2009
The government and related agencies are responsible for reporting the nation’s economic data. Thus, they’re in the driver’s seat to manipulate this data, while dumping so much of it onto consumers that they can’t possibly analyze what’s really going on. Each day, “critical” economic numbers are released by one or more agencies connected to Washington. And consumers look to Wall Street and the media to make heads or tails of this data. Of course, Wall...
Games Washington Plays: Trick #2, GDP Delusions Jul 28, 2009
I continue where I left off – discussing just a few of the ways Washington tries to fool us by its misuse and manipulation of data. Washington likes to remind critics that Americans enjoy the highest living standard in the world. As evidence of this, government “experts” discuss statistics such as GDP growth, employment, wealth, income and wage growth, and other economic data without defining exactly what they are referring to or explaining all the assumptions used. In Part...
Games Washington Plays. Trick #1: Hedonic Pricing Jul 27, 2009
For all of you out there who listen to economists and think they know what’s going on, hopefully you will begin to realize that the official data you see is nothing but an illusion after you read this multi part series of articles.
Another Victim of America's Ponzi Scheme Economy (Part 1) Jul 8, 2009
As of yesterday, Lear Corp., an auto parts supplier for the "Little 3" joined the list of others who have been victimized by the collapse of Americaas Ponzi scheme economy.A
Another Victim of America's Ponzi Scheme Economy (Part 2) Jul 8, 2009
Today, Americaas aoeNew Economya is based exclusively on services primarily financialAandAtechnology basedAservices, with a whole slew of attorneys and consult
More Propaganda from Kudlow Jun 28, 2009
In case you donat know who Larry Kudlow is, heas one of the CNBC hacks who continued to claim the economy was strong though most of 2008. Kudlow epitomizes the word hack. A
Learning from Japan Apr 24, 2009
I ran across an interesting story about how Japan is using a somewhat innovative approach to deal with its own symptoms of what will eventually be recorded in history books as the global depre...
The Deflation Myth Mar 15, 2009
For some strange reason, economists, and those who actually give credence to what they say seem to think that a single period eighty years ago set a precedent cast in stone for what to expect from this depression. As a result, the masters of propaganda continue to insist that you cannot have a depression without deflation.
Payback is a BITCH Sep 11, 2008
Despite attempts made by Greenspan and Bernanke, there is no way to avert the payback period that has been building for over two decades.
Greenspan, Get Lost! Sep 10, 2008
Mr. Greenspan, you have been the individual most responsible for the current crisis; a crisis which commenced only a few years after you tried to minimize the dotcom collapse, which of course you also...
Cheaters Never Win: The Case Against Ethanol May 5, 2008
I find it ridiculous that Washington has led America into another trap by supporting ethanol. By now, we all know how expensive it is to produce ethanol from agricultural sources.
Current State of the Economy Sep 1, 2007
ADespite recent reports of improvements in unemployment numbers and record corporate earnings growth, the state of the U.S. economy and financial markets are not what they may seem.AMuch...
The Recovery is Strong? Mar 3, 2006
All throughout the post bubble period, Greenspan and President Bush have been claiming how "solid" and aoestronga the recovery has been since the recession of 2001 2002 ...
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