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August 2013 Global Economic Analysis (Overview) Sep 2, 2013
The emerging markets have continued to weaken along with Europe, as the US economy and stock market gain more momentum. India was the first of the three major emerging markets we cover to show weakness nearly two years ago, followed by Brazil several months later. Over the past three years, capital inflows have been at the forefront of economic woes in many nations throughout the globe. However, India’s problems were largely internal due to a complete failure in leadership, business...
The Fed Blew It Like We Predicted Aug 30, 2013
Last month we discussed the fact that we felt the Federal Reserve had expressed too much optimism with regards to the progression of the economic recovery in the US. In addition, we also discussed the fact that investors exaggerated the statements made by the Fed in its May 22 meeting. The combined effect of these misinterpretations resulted in a spike in treasury yields and a massive sell off in the bond market through July.
Good News in Europe, or a Head Fake? Aug 27, 2013
Recently, Europe reported some upbeat economic numbers, prompting many analysts to take a more optimistic stance on the region. Specifically, the region’s composite PMI was revised to a 35 month high, signaling what officially might be later declared as an end to the Eurozone’s six quarter long recession since the PMI tends to serve as a good predictor of GDP growth. The July Composite PMI for Europe was revised to 50.5% from a previous 50.4% reading.
Ron Paul, Investment Disaster Aug 21, 2013
In this video, Mike demonstrates that Ron Paul is a complete disaster when it comes to investments. According to Mike, Ron Paul’ investment performance through the years is about as bad as one can get, and he has absolutely no idea about the investment process.
Mike Stathis Destroys CNBC Wh**e and Schools Ron Paul in Economics Aug 19, 2013
In this video, Mike educates Ron Paul on the difference between interest rates and Treasury yields, explains that winding down from the quantitative easing program by the Fed will not necessarily lead to an increase in interest rates.
April 2013 Intelligent Investor Part 1 Opening Statement May 21, 2013
Recently I wrote an article discussing reasons for the retreat in gold pricing. As I have done countless times in the past, I pointed out the common myth held by gold bugs that gold protects against inflation. By now you should realize that gold does not protect against inflation. Anyone who has bothered to examine the data will confirm this. Even if gold did serve as a hedge against inflation, the fact is that there has been very little inflation to speak of despite the large increase in the...
April 2013 Dividend Gems Opening Statement May 20, 2013
We are now beginning to see some earnings weakness in excess of that expected by investors. We feel that continued earnings disappointments could initiate a period of temporary downside in the U.S. stock market. But this is a very preliminary assessment. Without continued earnings misses, we would most likely need other catalysts to spark such a down period such as worrisome economic data from China and/or Europe, all of which is very possible and fairly probable.
Opening Statement from March 2013 Global Economic Analysis Mar 26, 2013
In this 11 page overview we discuss the health of the U.S. economy, including comparisons of its real credit rating with the rest of the world. We also discuss corporate earnings, what to expect from the stock market, the housing market, the job market, and the federal budget issues. We continue with the Canadian economy, the housing market and the oil and gas sector. Next, we discuss Europe, with specific mention of Germany, France, Cyprus, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands....
Do You Understand Obamacare? Take the Quiz Mar 24, 2013
I have posted a link to a 10 question quiz created by the Kaiser Family Foundation that tests your basic understanding of Obamacare.
March 2013 Global Economic Overview Mar 12, 2013
As global economic and political turmoil persists, it should be noted that investors continue to interpret a more favorable economic environment in United States in comparison with the rest of the advanced and developing world.
The Gold Price Paradox Mar 11, 2013
As forecast, gold and silver have continued their bearish retreat. This bearish intermediate term trend has baffled gold bugs, who were certain these precious metals would skyrocket with the announcement of “unlimited QE3.”
The Federal Budget and Taxation Feb 10, 2013
As detailed in many issues of this publication for some time now (as well as in Americaas Financial Apocalypse), the U.S. government must raise sufficient revenues needed to pay off its enormous debt obligations. In addition, it must determine how it plans to funds its entitlements program. Even with planned cuts to entitlements, Washington will need more revenues to fund these programs. The largest concern is Medicare.
A Closer Look at the Wealth and Income Disparity Feb 7, 2013
The large wealth and income inequality in the U.S. has continued to widen for nearly three decades. Over the past few years the disparity has become even larger. For instance, the top 1% of income earners in the U.S. account for 21% of aggregate income.
A Closer Look at Poverty Feb 3, 2013
Although poverty rates have been high in the United States for over a decade, they have increased appreciably since the economic crisis. As first detailed in America's Financial Apocalypse and discussed thereafter in previous publications, the official poverty rate has been suppressed by numerous means.
A Closer Look at the Federal Budget Jan 30, 2013
Each year, Washington spends money to provide a variety of services. Ideally, Washington should only spend as much as it takes in so that no deficit is created. But of course this is pure fantasy.
January 2013 Dividend Gems Opening Statement Jan 29, 2013
Last Friday the Labor Department reported that non farm payrolls grew by 155,000 jobs last month, slightly below November's level.Last Tuesday marked the commencement of Q4 earnings, with Alcoa meeting estimates on higher than expected revenues and raising 2013 global aluminum demand. This is important because it indicates that China is stabilizing. Modest progress continues to be made in several sectors in the U.S. economy including housing and construction.
Opening Statement from the January 2013 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Jan 26, 2013
Fiscal cliff negotiations turned out to be a disaster. As you will recall, the fiscal cliff referred to automatic expiration of numerous tax breaks and expenditures. It was meant to serve as an economic emergency brake to address medium term deficit and budget issues in case Washington did not act to alleviate expenditures on its own. Instead of allowing expenditures and tax breaks to expire, Washington essentially abolished the cliff and made a few minor tweaks.
Opening Statement from the January 2013 Intelligent Investor (Part 2) Jan 26, 2013
As the Fed continues with quantitative easing, commodities continue to sell off as expected. This makes sense if we consider the primary force driving commodities right now is the global economic slowdown. Thus, weak demand has served to neutralize much of the potential inflationary force created by quantitative easing.
Opening Statement from the January 2013 Intelligent Investor (Part 3) Jan 26, 2013
Last Friday the Labor Department reported that non farm payrolls grew by 155,000 jobs last month, slightly below November's level.Last Tuesday marked the commencement of Q4 earnings, with Alcoa meeting estimates on higher than expected revenues and raising 2013 global aluminum demand. This is important because it indicates that China is stabilizing. Modest progress continues to be made in several sectors in the U.S. economy including housing and construction.
Employer-Based Health Insurance. Big versus Small Firms Jan 24, 2013
Nearly 96% of large private sector employers (with 50 or more employees) offer health insurance to employees, compared to 36% of small employers. On average, private sector employers cover 74% of premiums for family coverage.
Opening Statement from the December 2012 Intelligent Investor (Part 4) Jan 22, 2013
It has been more than three years since leaders from the G20 gathered in London to discuss solutions to the financial crisis and global recession. This meeting also called on experts to devise ways to prevent this catastrophe from ever happening again. Since that time, we have not seen an end to the financial crisis or the recession. Indeed, we have seen no evidence to suggest that the financial system is substantially safer today than prior to the financial crisis.
Opening Statement from the December 2012 Intelligent Investor (Part 1) Jan 21, 2013
Little has changed since we released the last monthly publication. The global economy continues to weaken. Europe is sinking deeper into recession and even Germany is now most likely headed for a contraction.
November Intelligent Investor Opening Statement (Part 1) Jan 19, 2013
Based on the performance of several stocks considered to be very reliant on the outcome of the election, it appeared that Wall Street had determined at least a few weeks ago that President Obama would win the election.
November Intelligent Investor Opening Statement (Part 2) Jan 19, 2013
One cannot deny that the chart of the Dow looks impressive since March 2009. This is by no coincidence. A trend of record earnings have combined with record low Treasury yields and the safe haven status of U.S. assets to keep the market high. But as we have been warning for a year now, earnings continue to weaken.
The Damaging Consequences of Free Trade Dec 29, 2012
For over three decades, proponents of free trade have promised Americans more jobs. This promise has not been kept. Ever since NAFTA was signed into law in 1994, developing nations have been on the receiving end of millions of jobs that have left the U.S. soil.The truth of the matter is that free trade was designed to boost corporate profits. And it has achieved this objective with impressive fashion. Thus, because the wealthiest Americans own large numbers of corporate shares, free trade has...
August 2012 Intelligent Investor Opening Statement and Employment Picture Dec 21, 2012
We have released a PDF of the Opening Statement as well as the Employment analysis from the August 2012 Intelligent Investor.
Fiscal Cliff Discussion from August 2012 Intelligent Investor Dec 21, 2012
We have released a presentation on the Fiscal Cliff situation first published in the August 2012 Intelligent Investor.
Housing Market Analysis from August 2012 Intelligent Investor Dec 21, 2012
We have released an excerpt from the August 2012 Housing Market Analysis contained in the Intelligent Investor.
Household Savings, Consumer Spending and Bankers Dec 18, 2012
Economists, analysts, policy makers and of course central bankers are always paying attention to the household savings rate data for a variety of reasons. Regardless of the reason for their interest, the end result is the same. Bankers want to do all they can to discourage savings so that consumers will load up on credit, thereby holding them hostage to interest payments.
Free Trade and the Suicide of a Superpower (Part 2) Oct 22, 2012
When I wrote in 2006, I did not want to be accused of being overly pessimistic, even though such an accusation would not likely hold merit since my analysis was based on extensive data. Nevertheless, to safeguard against such a criticism, in the final passage of this book, I wrote that once confronted with the elements of America’s Second Great Depression, Washington would make the changes required to prevent the indefinite demise of the U.S. However, I knew that these changes would not...
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