To those of you who say it's impossible to time or forecast the market; to those of you who keep wasting your time reading and watching the clowns positioned as so-called "experts" by the media; I ask you where have their forecasts been?
Instead of writing Humpty-Dumpty sat on a wall, Humpty-Dumpty consumed so much he had a great fall mantras each week, and forecasts that the dollar is going to 0 and gold to the moon, while preaching buy-and-hold the entire time, you need to start asking yourself if you have made money on every major market move; up and down.
If not then you haven't been paying attention to real experts.
And you have lost out on some easy money in my opinion.
Below is a chart of the DJIA since the Spring of 2008, when I first started to devote time to try and help Main Street. Each market call has been referenced with articles posted in the public domain for verification. If you keep listening to extremists who only know one direction, you don't stand a chance, regardless if they are perma-bulls or perma-bears.
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(1) http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-74.html
(2) http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-84.html
(3) http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-334.html
(4) http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-90.html
(5) June and July AVAIA newsletter
(6) August AVAIA newsletter
You'll also note that as bullish as I have been on China and commodities, I warned of a major correction to both markets in my 2006 book America's Financial Apocalypse. I reiterated this several times since publishing articles online and stated this would be the time to buy into both markets.
In fact, even in my first online publication (1), I stated the following...
"Watch out though, because if things get really bad, the entire world will be affected. But that will represent a buying opportunity in Chinese and Brazilian equities."
"With rare exception, investors should stay clear of traditional asset classes. If you haven’t already done so, you’d be wise to invest in commodities, gold, oil trusts, and foreign currencies (Yen and Swiss Franc). In addition, investors without short investment horizons should have some exposure in China and Latin America. Keeping cash on hand is also advised. When the market sells off, you may choose to buy in."
So let's summarize the effects of playing these market calls.
If you had bought into China (FXI) when I recommended at the end of November when it made its lows, you'd be up by over 110% in less than a year.
If you had sold the market in May 2008 and only bought back in when I issued my market buy in March 2009, you'd have spared yourself losses of 50% (or made 50% if you shorted the Dow). If you'd bought the ultrashort financials (SKF) you'd have made even more (assuming you traded it short-term so as to avoid the adverse effects of holding ultrashort ETFs over long periods).
If you still had not sold despite my May 2008 recommendation, you could have sold on August 7, 2008 and waited for the earnings meltdown, followed by the market collapse. After saving yourself from 35% losses (or registering gains of 35% via shorting the market), you could have bought back the market on November 23, 2008 on my estimate that the market would rally by up to 15-20% by years end ~ January (which occurred).
Then if you sold by the beginning of January as I recommended (i.e. I warned of a sell-off thereafter), you'd have avoided another 30% losses or made 30% if you shorted the market. Combined, you could have registered a net 60%. You would have known when to cover your shorts when I recommended the gradual buy-in on March 6, 2009 when the Dow reached 6600.
Who says you can't time the market?
Those who pay very close attention to what I say will do quite well; but only if you follow me consistently. If you stubble upon my articles here and there, you will likely misinterpret things and do poorly. The only way to follow me closely is to read the newsletter, offered to individual investors, financial advisers, family offices and hedge funds.
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