I don't know if anyone read the two posts I made on Monday about healthcare and HMOs, but they were lost when the site was hacked since I did not have a backup that recent.
Anyway, in case you did not see, what I basically said was that the HMOs and drug stocks would continue to rally until at least September (assuming at least neutral market strength) before more details of the healthcare bill come out.
Right now, the thought is that things will favor HMOs, so investors are buying them. You should expect to see continued movement in HMOs and drug stocks until congress returns.
Those of you who like to make occasional short-term trades might consider a some big drug or HMO names, but to be safe, I would make sure and get out by the end of next week.
I also mentioned that I think PFE will hit $19-$20 over the next few months. It could see that even sooner. When I made this announcement on Monday, PFE was still around $15.80. It's moved nicely in the past two days. I also mentioned that when it does hit the $19-$20 range, I would use it as an exit opportunity. Others may want to duck in for a short-intermediate trade.
In the September newsletter I am going to do a write-up on an HMO I have been recommending since last year as low as the mid-teens. It has done very well since then and that is why I have not recommended it in the newsletter. If you want to know which one it is, check my archives from last year.
Always remember, things are dynamic and subject to change daily and even intradaily. What I see today could be very different from what I see tomorrow, depending on what happens.
In the write-up I will identify some good entry points for this HMO. As you know, I like to shave points off of stocks when entering. It saves a great deal of money if you are able to do this. It also lowers your risk since valuation and risk are interrelated.
For those subscribing to the newsletter, I have not changed my forecast for the DJIA. Of course I will follow-up with my market forecast in the September issue and alert you via email if things change between issues, as I have done in the past.
Remember, market forecasting is absolutely the single most important skill an investor can have since 80-90% of the movement of all stocks is determined by the movement in the overall market. Focusing on individual stocks without a consideration of the forward direction of the market is foolish. And during current market conditions, it could be financial suicide.
Unfortunately, market forecast is also the most difficult thing to do. That is why you rarely hear anyone speak of it. And when they do, you rarely find anyone who is right more times than they are wrong.
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