Just some quick thoughts, nothing set in stone here.
Earnings are starting to come in a bit "ify;" not so great, but not bad. Expectations are key.
Starting to see a few minor price target revisions on the downside but nothing major. Still, I have not seen this in some time. As long as these revisions are not large and are absorbed gradually over time they shouldn't be an issue.
Normally, the very slight weakness in earnings would not be an issue. However, with everything weighing in, it could signal an intermediate-term trend reversal downside (with maybe an upbeat day here or there depending on key earnings over thenext several days). Too soon to tell right now.
What's weighing in?
1) US Debt outlook for a downgrade - this is noise BUT look for bullish gold (esp.) and silver trade
2) Japan - the effects will linger
3) China - inflation, real estate overheating, labor market wage pressure, yuan will revalue more rapidly in response
4) Labor at close to full capacity in Brazil, India, Indonesia
5) Middle East tensions
6) Eurozone continued issues
7) High oil prices
8) Brazil inflation risk remains concerning with inadequate response from officials
I trimmed positions last week. Waiting for more ST clarity. Will trade short-term when possible.
I'm waiting to get back into oil. I have a small position I repurchased Friday. I see further downside on some of the Int. Inv. oil holdings, but limited downside on the DG oil holdings.
I stand by my market forecast and recommendation.
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