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Cheerleading From IMF Won't Rescue The Global Economy
Friday, July 29, 2011, by Stathis
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Below we have posted the most recent revisions to economic data, including estimates through 2011 (Japan and Spain) and 2012 (U.S. and China).  It will be interesting to see when the IMF decides to issue more accurate economic projections that are in-line with reality. 

There is a huge amount of economic data planned for the August issue of the Intelligent Investor. We will discuss our own estimates of this data and more in the August issue of the Intelligent Investor (time permitting). 

 

United States: Selected Economic Indicators
(annual change in percent, unless otherwise indicated)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Projections
 
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
 
National production and income
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Real GDP
2.7
1.9
0.0
-2.6
2.9
2.5
2.7
  Net exports 1/
-0.1
0.6
1.2
1.3
-0.4
0.4
0.3
  Total domestic demand
2.6
1.3
-1.1
-3.6
3.2
2.0
2.2
    Final domestic demand
2.5
1.5
-0.6
-3.1
1.9
2.0
2.1
      Private final consumption
2.9
2.4
-0.3
-1.2
1.7
2.5
2.0
      Public consumption expenditure
1.0
1.3
2.5
1.9
0.9
-1.7
-1.0
      Gross fixed domestic investment
2.5
-1.2
-4.5
-14.8
3.3
4.0
6.0
        Private fixed investment
2.3
-1.8
-6.4
-18.3
3.9
5.3
7.5
          Residential structures
-7.3
-18.7
-24.0
-22.9
-3.0
-3.4
6.4
        Public fixed investment
3.3
1.7
4.3
0.2
1.3
-0.6
0.7
    Change in private inventories 1/
0.1
-0.2
-0.5
-0.7
1.4
0.1
0.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GDP in current prices
6.0
4.9
2.2
-1.7
3.8
4.0
3.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment and inflation
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unemployment rate
4.6
4.6
5.8
9.3
9.6
8.9
8.4
CPI inflation
3.2
2.9
3.8
-0.3
1.6
2.8
1.6
GDP deflator
3.3
2.9
2.2
0.9
1.0
1.4
1.2
Government finances
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Federal government (budget, fiscal years)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Federal balance (percent of GDP)
-1.9
-1.2
-3.2
-11.4
-9.6
-9.3
-7.6
  Debt held by the public (percent of GDP)
36.5
36.2
40.3
53.5
62.1
70.2
74.6
General government (GFSM 2001, calendar years)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Net lending (percent of GDP)
-2.0
-2.7
-6.5
-12.7
-10.3
-9.9
-7.8
  Structural balance (percent of potential nominal GDP)
-2.0
-2.2
-4.6
-6.8
-7.2
-7.2
-5.8
  Gross debt (percent of GDP)
61.0
62.2
71.2
84.2
93.5
99.0
103.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interest rates (percent)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Three-month Treasury bill rate
4.8
4.5
1.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.4
Ten-year government bond rate
4.8
4.6
3.7
3.3
3.2
3.5
4.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Balance of payments
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current account balance (billions of dollars)
-803
-718
-669
-378
-470
-489
-410
  Percent of GDP
-6.0
-5.1
-4.7
-2.7
-3.2
-3.2
-2.6
Merchandise trade balance (billions of dollars)
-839
-823
-835
-507
-647
-703
-702
  Percent of GDP
-6.3
-5.9
-5.8
-3.6
-4.4
-4.6
-4.4
Balance on invisibles (billions of dollars)
37
105
166
129
177
214
293
  Percent of GDP
0.3
0.7
1.2
0.9
1.2
1.4
1.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Saving and investment (percent of GDP)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross national saving
16.2
14.3
12.4
10.9
11.6
12.3
14.1
Gross domestic investment
20.5
19.6
18.0
14.8
15.9
16.1
16.7
 
Sources: Haver Analytics and IMF staff estimates.
1/ Contribution to real GDP growth, percentage points.

 
 

Spain: Selected Economic Indicators, 2006–11
(Percent change, unless otherwise indicated)
 
 
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
 
 
Demand and supply in constant prices
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross domestic product
4.0
3.6
0.9
-3.7
-0.1
0.8
  Private consumption
3.8
3.7
-0.6
-4.2
1.2
0.7
  Public consumption
4.6
5.5
5.8
3.2
-0.7
-1.2
  Gross fixed investment
7.2
4.5
-4.8
-16.0
-7.6
-2.8
    Construction investment
6.0
3.2
-5.9
-11.9
-11.1
-8.0
Total domestic demand
5.2
4.1
-0.6
-6.0
-1.1
-0.4
Net exports (contribution to growth)
-1.4
-0.8
1.5
2.7
1.0
1.3
Exports of goods and services
6.7
6.7
-1.1
-11.6
10.3
11.0
Imports of goods and services
10.2
8.0
-5.3
-17.8
5.4
5.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Potential output growth (long run HP-filter)
2.7
2.7
2.4
1.4
0.5
0.4
Output gap (percent of potential)
3.0
3.9
2.4
-2.8
-3.4
-2.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Household savings (percent of disposable income)
11.1
10.8
13.5
18.2
13.1
12.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prices
 
 
 
 
 
 
GDP deflator
4.1
3.3
2.4
0.6
1.0
1.6
HICP (average)
3.6
2.8
4.1
-0.2
2.0
3.0
HICP (end of period)
2.7
4.3
1.5
0.9
2.9
2.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment and wages
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unemployment rate (in percent)
8.5
8.3
11.3
18.0
20.1
20.1
Unit labor cost in manufacturing
2.8
4.1
6.9
2.8
-4.6
-1.2
Labor cost in manufacturing
4.1
3.7
4.8
5.0
1.4
1.5
Employment growth
3.9
3.0
-0.4
-6.6
-2.3
-0.1
Labor force growth (in percent) 1/
3.2
2.7
3.0
1.0
0.2
-0.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Balance of payments (percent of GDP)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Trade balance (goods)
-8.5
-8.6
-7.9
-4.0
-4.4
-4.5
Current account balance 2/
-9.0
-10.0
-9.6
-5.2
-4.5
-4.2
Net international investment position
-65.9
-78.1
-79.3
-91.1
-87.1
-88.6
Nominal effective rate (2000=100) 3/
100.9
102.8
104.4
105.1
101.3
102.6
Real effective rate (2000=100,CPI-based) 3/
102.2
105.0
106.6
106.9
103.6
104.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance (percent of GDP)
 
 
 
 
 
 
General government balance
2.0
1.9
-4.2
-11.1
-9.2
-6.2
Primary balance
3.7
3.5
-2.6
-9.4
-7.3
-4.1
Structural balance
-1.2
-1.1
-4.9
-9.2
-7.4
-4.7
General government debt
39.6
36.1
39.8
53.3
60.1
67.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fund position (June 30, 2011)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Holdings of currency (percent of quota)
 
 
 
 
 
72.4
Holdings of SDRs (percent of allocation)
 
 
 
 
 
93.8
Quota (millions of SDRs)
 
 
 
 
 
4,023.4
 
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; data provided by the authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
 
1/ Based on national definition (i.e., the labor force is defined as people older than 16 and younger than 65).
 
2/ Capital account not included.
 
3/ Based on data from IMF, International Financial Statistics. Data for 2011 refer to March 2011.
 

  
 

Japan: Selected Economic Indicators
 
 
 
 
 
 
Proj.
 
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
 
 
Real GDP
2.4
-1.2
-6.3
4.0
-0.7
 
Private consumption
1.6
-0.7
-1.9
1.8
-1.2
 
Nonresidential investment
2.6
-1.4
-16.7
2.1
0.4
 
Residential investment
-9.6
-8.0
-14.0
-6.3
4.5
 
Public investment
-7.4
-8.6
10.4
-3.4
8.1
 
Government consumption
1.5
0.5
3.0
2.2
1.6
 
Stockbuilding (contribution to growth)
0.3
-0.2
-1.5
0.6
-0.1
 
Net exports (contribution to growth)
1.1
0.2
-1.5
1.8
-0.7
 
  Exports of goods and services
8.4
1.6
-23.9
23.9
0.9
 
  Imports of goods and services
1.6
0.4
-15.3
9.8
7.7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Inflation (period average)
 
 
 
 
 
 
GDP deflator
-0.7
-1.0
-0.4
-2.1
-1.1
 
CPI (SA) 1/
0.1
1.4
-1.3
-0.7
0.1
 
CPI (NSA) 1/
0.1
1.4
-1.4
-0.7
0.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unemployment rate (period average, percent)
3.9
4.0
5.1
5.1
4.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current account balance
 
 
 
 
 
 
Billions of U.S. dollars
211.0
157.1
141.8
195.9
144.7
 
Percent of GDP
4.8
3.2
2.8
3.6
2.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
General government balances (percent of GDP)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Overall balance
-2.4
-4.2
-10.3
-9.6
-10.5
 
Primary balance
-1.8
-3.3
-9.2
-8.5
-9.0
 
Structural balance 2/
-2.6
-3.7
-7.0
-7.7
-8.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Money and credit (12-month growth rate; end period)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Base money
0.4
1.8
5.2
7.0
16.2
5/
M2 (period average)
2.1
1.8
3.1
2.3
2.7
5/
Bank lending 3/
0.8
4.6
-0.9
-1.8
-0.5
5/
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Exchange and interest rates (period average)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Yen/dollar rate
117.8
103.4
93.6
87.8
80.6
6/
Yen/euro rate
161.4
152.1
130.3
116.5
114.5
6/
Real effective exchange rate 4/
59.8
66.9
78.1
83.8
86.7
5/
3-month CD rate
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
6/
10-year government bond yield
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.1
6/
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sources: Global Insight, Nomura database and IMF staff estimates and projections.
1/ Annual growth rates are calculated from annual averages of monthly data.
2/ Excluding bank support.
3/ Data reflect the inclusion of foreign banks, foreign trusts banks and Shinkin banks in the monetary survey.
4/ Based on normalized unit labor costs; 2000 = 100.
5/ May 2011.
6/ June 24, 2011.

 

 

China: Selected Economic Indicators
 
(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified)
 
 
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
 
 
 
National accounts and employment
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Real GDP
12.7
14.2
9.6
9.2
10.3
9.6
9.5
  Total domestic demand
11.5
12.7
9.7
14.2
10.0
8.5
9.0
    Consumption
9.8
11.1
8.6
8.4
8.1
9.5
9.6
    Investment
13.6
14.7
11.0
20.8
12.0
7.5
8.3
      Fixed
12.8
13.5
9.7
24.5
11.8
7.9
8.7
      Inventories 1/
0.6
0.8
0.8
-0.8
0.3
0.0
0.0
  Net exports 1/
2.0
2.5
0.8
-3.7
0.8
1.5
1.1
Consumer prices
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  End of period
2.0
6.6
2.5
0.7
4.7
4.0
3.0
  Average
1.5
4.8
5.9
-0.7
3.3
4.7
3.3
Unemployment rate (annual average)
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.1
4.0
4.0
 
(In percent of GDP)
External debt and balance of payments 
 
Current account
8.6
10.1
9.1
5.2
5.2
5.5
6.0
Trade balance
8.0
9.0
8.0
5.0
4.3
4.6
5.1
  Exports of goods
35.7
34.9
31.7
24.1
26.9
30.2
31.8
  Imports of goods
27.7
25.9
23.8
19.1
22.6
25.5
26.7
Gross external debt
12.5
11.1
8.6
8.6
9.3
10.1
11.5
Saving and investment
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross domestic investment
43.0
41.7
44.0
48.2
48.8
48.5
48.5
National saving
51.6
51.9
53.2
53.5
54.0
54.0
54.5
  Government
7.7
8.8
8.4
6.2
6.9
6.5
7.3
  Non-government
43.9
43.0
44.8
47.3
47.1
47.5
47.2
Public sector finance
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Central government gross debt
16.2
19.6
17.0
17.7
17.0
16.5
15.4
General government balance
-0.7
0.9
-0.4
-3.1
-2.2
-1.6
-0.7
 
(Annual percentage change)
Real effective exchange rate 2/
1.6
4.0
9.2
3.3
-0.5
...
...
 
Sources: CEIC Data Co., Ltd.; and staff estimates and projections.
1/ Contribution to annual growth in percent.
2/ Percentage change of annual average.

 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 
 

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