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December 2011 Economic Overview

Morgan Stanley recently downgraded its forecast for 2012 global growth to 3.5% from 3.8%. Remember in August, Morgan Stanley cut its global forecast for GDP growth down to 3.9% (from 4.2%) and 3.8% (from 4.5%) for 2011 and 2012, respectively.
 
In June, the IMF forecast 2.5% and 2.7% GDP growth in 2011 and 2012, respectively. This latest revision comes closer to the organization’s 2% benchmark for a global recession. 
 
Also recall in September the IMF cut U.S. GDP growth forecasts to 1.5% and 1.8% for 2011 and 2012, respectively. The consensus growth estimates for the U.S. in 2011 and 2012 from Wall Street analysts and private economists was also cut in August to 1.5% and 2.2% for 2011 and 2012, respectively. 
 
On September 29, Citigroup slashed its global GDP growth forecast to 3% and 2.9% for 2011 and 2012, respectively. This was the bank’s second downward revision in less than a month.

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