"There are two sorts of wealth-getting, as I have said; one is a part of household management, the other is retail trade: the former necessary and honorable, while that which consists in exchange is justly censured; for it is unnatural, and a mode by which men gain from one another. The most hated sort, and with the greatest reason, is usury, which makes a gain out of money itself, and not from the natural object of it. For money was intended to be used in exchange, but not to increase at interest. And this term interest, which means the birth of money from money, is applied to the breeding of money because the offspring resembles the parent. Wherefore of modes of getting wealth this is the most unnatural."

- Politics, Aristotle, 350 B.C.

"The Jew alone regards his race as superior to humanity, and looks forward not to its ultimate union with other races, but to its triumph over them all and to its final ascendancy under the leadership of a tribal Messiah."

- Goldwin Smith, The Jewish Question, October 1881

“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.”

- President Woodrow Wilson 1916

“We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries.”

- David Rockefeller, Baden-Baden, Germany 1991

“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”

- Henry Ford 

“The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the larger centers has owned the Government ever since the days of Andrew Jackson.”

- Franklin D. Roosevelt, letter to Col. House, November 21, l933

“One of the least understood strategies of the world revolution now moving rapidly toward its goal is the use of mind control as a major means of obtaining the consent of the people who will be subjects of the New World Order.”

- The National Educator, K.M. Heaton

"We Jews, we, the destroyers, will remain the destroyers for ever. Nothing that you will do will meet our needs and demands. We will for ever destroy because we need a world of our own, a God-world, which it is not in your nature to build."

- Maurice Samuels, You Gentiles, 1924

“We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis and the nations will accept the New World Order.”

- David Rockefeller 

“Today, America would be outraged if U.N. troops entered Los Angeles to restore order. Tomorrow they will be grateful! This is especially true if they were told that there were an outside threat from beyond, whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. It is then that all peoples of the world will plead to deliver them from this evil. The one thing every man fears is the unknown. When presented with this scenario, individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well-being granted to them by the World Government.”

- Dr. Henry Kissinger, Bilderberger Conference, Evians, France, 1991

How to Think Clearly

"Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." –Mark Twain

If you want to begin to understand and appreciate the work of Mike Stathis, from his market forecasts and securities analysis to his political and economic analysis, you will first need to learn how to think clearly. For many, this will be a cleansing process that could take quite a long time to complete depending on each individual.

The best way to begin to clear your mind is to first move forward with this series of steps:

1. GET RID OF YOUR TV SET (at least cancel your cable)


3. DO NOT USE A "SMART PHONE" (or at least do not use your phone to access the internet)


The cleansing process will take time but you can hasten the process by being proactive in exercising your mind.

You should also be aware of a very common behavior exhibited by humans who have been exposed to the various aspects of modern society. This behavior occurs when an individual overestimates his abilities and knowledge, while underestimating his weaknesses and lack of understanding. This behavior has been coined the "Dunning-Kruger Effect" after to sociologists who described it in a research publication. See here.

Many people today think they are virtual experts on every topic they regard with relevance. The reason for this illusory behavior is because these individuals typically allow themselves to become brainwashed by various media outlets. The more information these individuals obtain on these topics from the media, the more qualified they feel they are in these subjects, without realizing that the media is not a valid source with which to use for understanding something. The media always has bias and can never be relied on to represent the full truth.

A perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen with many individuals who listen to talk radio shows. These shows are politically biased and consist of individuals who resemble used car salesmen more than intellectuals. These talking heads brainwash their audience with cherry-picked facts, misstatements and lies regarding relevant issues such as healthcare, immigration, Social Security, Medicaid, economics, science, and so forth. They also select guests for interview based on the agendas they wish to fulfill with their advertisers.

Once their audience has been indoctrinated by these propagandists, they feel qualified to discuss these topics on the same level as a real authority, without realizing that they obtained their understanding from individuals who are employed as professional liars and manipulators by the media.  Another good example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen upon examination of political pundits, stock market and economic analysts on TV.  They talk a good game because they are professional speakers. But once you examine their track record, it is clear that these individuals are largely wrong, but they have developed an inflated sense of expertise and knowledge on topics for which they continuously demonstrate their incompetence.

One of the most insightful analogies created to explain how things are often not what you see was Plato's Allegory of the Cave, from Book 7 of the Republic.

We highly recommend that you study this masterpiece in great detail so that you are better able to use logic and reason.Although we recommend you read and study The Allegory of the Cave, you can get a flavor for its meaning by watching the following video. 

If you can learn how to think like a philosopher, specifically one of the great ancient Greek philosophers, it is highly unlikely that you will ever be fooled by con artists like those who make ridiculous and unfounded claims in order to pump gold and silver, the typical get-rich-quick or multi-level marketing (MLM) crowd.

STOP Being Taken

“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.”

King James Bible - Matthew 7:15

"It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." –Mark Twain

All Viewpoints Are Not Created Equal Just because something is published in print, online or aired in the broadcast media does not make it accurate.  In fact, more often than not the larger the audience, the more likely the content is either inaccurate or slanted. The next time you read something about economics or investments, you should ask two main questions in order to assess the credibility of the source. Is the source biased in any way?   That is, do they have any agendas which would provide any type of benefit accounting for their views? Most individuals either sell ads on their site or are dealers of precious metals or securities. That means their views are biased and cannot be relied upon.

Is your source is credible?  

Most people associate credibility with name-recognition. But more often than not, name-recognition serves as a predictor of bias if not lack of credibility because the more a name is recognized, the more the individual has been plastered in the media. And every intelligent person knows that individuals who have been provided with media exposure because they are either naive or clueless. The media positions these types of individuals as “credible experts” in order to please its financial sponsors; Wall Street. 

Instead of name-recognition or media celebrity status, you must determine whether your source has relevant experience on Wall Street as opposed to being self-taught. But this is just a basic hurdle that in itself by no means ensures the source is competent or credible. More important, always examine the track record of your source in depth, looking for accuracy and specific forecasts rather than open-ended statements. You must also look for timing since a broken clock is always right once a day.  Finally, make sure they do not cherry-pick their best calls. Always examine their entire track record. 

“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.”

King James Bible - Matthew 7:15

The above questions require only slight modification for use in determining the credibility of sources that discuss other topics, such as politics, healthcare, etc.We have compiled the most extensive publication exposing hundreds of con men pertaining to the financial publishing and securities industry, although we also cover numerous con men in the media and other front groups since they are all associated in some way with each other. There is perhaps no one else in the world capable of shedding the full light on these con men other than Mike Stathis. Mike has been studying the indistry for well over a decade. Alhough he has published numerous articles and videos addressing this dark side of the industry, the entire collection can be found in our ENCYCLOPEDIA of Bozos, Hacks, Snake Oil Salesmen and Faux Heroes
At AVA Investment Analytics, we don't try to pump gold, silver or equities like many others you see because we are not promoters or marketers. And we do not receive any compensation whatsoever (including from ads) from our content. We provide individual investors, financial advisers, analysts and fund managers with world-class research, education and unique insight.

Media Lies

If you listen to the media, most likely it is costing you hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost money at minimum over the course of your lifetime. The deceit, lies and useless guidance from the financial media certainly is a large contributor of these losses to the sheep you pay attention.

But a good deal of lost wealth comes in the form of excessive consumerism which the media seeks to impose on its audience. You aren’t going to know that you’re being brainwashed or that you have lost $1 million or $2 million over your life time due to the media, but I can guarantee you that with rare exception this is the reality for those who are naïve enough to waste time on the media.

It gets worse. By listening to the media, you are likely to also suffer ill health effects through the lack of timely coverage of toxic prescription drugs or through the ridiculous medical shows, all of which are supportive of the medical-industrial complex.

And if you seek out the so-called "alternative media" you might make the mistake of relying on con men like Kevin Trudeau or Alex Jones. This could be a deadly decision. As bad as traditional media is, the so-called "alternative media" is even worse.

Why Does the Media Air Liars and Con Men?

The goal of the media is NOT to serve its audience because the audience does NOT pay the bills.

The goal of the media is to please its sponsors, or the companies that spend huge dollars buying ads, and in order for companies to justify these expenses, they need the media to represent their cause. The media does this by airing idiots and con men who mislead and confuse their audience.

By engaging in "journalistic fraud," the media steers its audience into the arms of its advertisers because the audience is now misled and confused, so in the case of the financial media, it seeks the assistance of Wall Street brokerage firms, mutual funds, insurance companies, precious metals dealers. This is why advertisers pay big money to be promoted in the financial media.

We see the same thing on a more obvious note in the so-called "alternative media," which is really a remanufactured version of the so-called "mainstream media." Do not be fooled. There is no such thing as the "alternative media." 

In order to be considered "media" you must have content that has widespread channels of distribution. Thus, all "media" is widely distributed and the same powers that control the distribution of the so-called "mainstream media" also control the distribution of the so-called "alternative media."

The claim that there is an "alternative media" is merely a sales pitch designed to capture the audience that has since given up on the "mainstream media."  The tactic is a very common one used by con men.

The same tactic is used by Washington to convince naive voters that there are meaningful differences between the nation's two political parties. In reality, both parties are essentially the same when it comes to issues that matter most (trade policy, healthcare and war). Anyone who tells you anything different simply isn't thinking straight.

On this site, we expose the lies and the liars in the media. We discuss and reveal the motives and track record of the media’s hand-selected charlatans with a focus on the financial media.  

Why Stathis Was Banned

No one has generated a more accurate track record in the investment markets over the past several years than Mike Stathis. Yet, the financial media wants nothing to do with Stathis.

You aren't even going to hear him on the radio being interviewed.

You aren't going to see him mentioned on any websites either.

You won't read or hear of his remarkable track record unless you read about it on this website or read his books.

You should be wondering why this might be. Some of you already know the answer.

The media has banned Mike Stathis because the trick is to air clowns so that the audience will be steered into the hands of the media's financial sponsors - Wall Street and gold dealers.

And as for the radio shows and websites that either don't know about Stathis or don't care to hear what he has to say, the fact is that they are so stupid that they assume those who are plastered in the media are credible. And since they haven't seen or heard Stathis in the media, even if they come across him, they automatically assume he's a nobody in the investment world simply because he has no media exposure.

Well, if media exposure was a testament to knowledge, credibility and excellent track records, Peter Schiff's clients would be a lot happier when they looked at their account balance.

Others only care about pitching what’s deemed as the “hot” topic because this sells ads in terms of more site visits or reads. This is why you come across so many websites based on doom and conspiratorial horse shit run by con artists looking to cash in on ads.

We have donated countless hours and huge sums of money towards the pursuit of exposing the con men, lies and fraud. We continue this mission but we cannot continue it forever without your assistance.

We have been banned by virtually every media platform in the U.S and every website (mainly because we expose the truth about gold and silver).

We have been banned from use of email marketing providers.

The fact is that the Jewish Mafia has declared war on us because we have exposed the realities of the U.S. government, Wall Street and corporate America.

Note that we only began discussing the role of Jews in criminality by 2009, three years AFTER we had been black-listed by the media, so no one can say that our criticism of the Jewish Mafia has led to being black-listed, not that it would even be acceptable.

You can talk about the Italian Mafia, and Jewish Hollywood can make 100s of movies about it...


We rely on you to help spread the word about us. Just remember this. We don’t have to do what we are doing.

We could do as everyone else and focus on making money. We are doing sacrificing everything because in this day and age, unfortunately, the truth is revolutionary. It is also critical in order to prevent the complete enslavement of world citizenry.   

Rules to Remember

On Exposure: No one who has significant exposure can be trusted because those who are responsible for permitting such exposure have allowed it for a very good reason, and that reason does not serve your best interests.

On Spotting Frauds: Whenever you wish to know whether someone can be trusted, always remember this golden rule..."a man is judged by the company he keeps."

This is a very important rule to remember because con men almost always belong to the same network.

You will see the same con artists referencing each other, on blog rolls and so forth.

  • How to Think Clearly
  • STOP Being Taken
  • Media Lies
  • Why Stathis Was Banned
  • Rules to Remember
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October 2011 Global Economic Summary

The incompetency of Washington was most recently demonstrated by the debt ceiling drama. Now the dog-and-pony show staged by the ECB, EU and IMF has added to waning consumer and investor sentiment across the globe to create a crisis in confidence. The timing of this charade could not have been worse, as this unnecessary turn of events has hit the global economy during a period when it was predetermined to weaken on its own force due to the depletion of stimulus funds. As a result of these seemingly intentional destructive actions, most of the economic gains made as the result of tax subsidies and bailout funds since the financial crisis of 2008 have been erased.
Meanwhile, substantial downside risks to global growth remain. Notably, a default of Greek sovereign debt appears imminent. Finally, the risk of significant shocks to Brazil and China has increased. At the very least, Brazil is likely to face more problems in 2012, and possibly thereafter depending on several variables. I have been warning about the risks to emerging economies for some time now.
While advanced nations were forced to borrow funds to inject emergency stimulus into the economy in 2009, emerging nations allocated stimulus expenditures primarily for programs that would strength the road ahead. As a result, nations like China and Brazil have lifted millions of their citizens out of deep poverty. In contrast, advanced nations have generally witnessed increasing levels of poverty. Accordingly, advanced nations around the globe face several economic and social challenges. Although variable in extent depending on the nation under consideration, most advanced nations face the challenges underlying fiscal consolidation and balance sheet deleveraging.
Of more potential concern at least in the short-term, advanced nations must immediately lay forth viable programs to facilitate employment, especially for youths. Otherwise, this could lead to more uprisings (which I feel would be a good thing).
Finally, advanced nations must deal appropriately and expeditiously with the demographic tsunami that has been in the making for decades. The economics of intergenerational demographic imbalances can be seen at their most extreme form by examination Japan’s socioeconomic landscape. However, many EU member nations are not far behind. 
Japan also faces numerous short-term issues as the result of recent natural disasters. Shortly after the tsunami, earthquake and nuclear meltdown, analysts marginalized the global impact from Japan. We did not agree with this assessment and warned that it would add to the global slowdown expected in the second half of 2011. Only months later did the entire globe truly come to realize the full importance of Japan in the production supply chain.
As a part of the remedy to address these demographic imbalances faced by advanced economies, pension and healthcare programs must be reformed in an equitable manner so that they are sustainable indefinitely. In the case of the EU, structural changes must be made to increase incentives for elevated labor force participation. In the case of the U.S., the majority of the entitlement problems could be solved by restructuring the healthcare system into a more efficient, more accountable industry, with price controls and real penalties for public healthcare fraud. As well, raising the tax ceiling for Social Security from the current wage limit of about $107,000 to $170,000 would provide long-term solvency to this vital safety net.  
Poor progress towards repair of government balance sheets in advanced nations has combined with the economic malaise to create heightened concerns about the ability of the U.S., Japan and Europe to weather the global economic slowdown.
Many are now becoming increasingly concerned that another recession will commence within months in the U.S. and Europe. Japan has already reentered a recession a few months ago, as we reported previously. As we have continued to insist, the U.S. never left the recession which began in December 2007. Moreover, it appears highly likely that most of the EU will reenter a recession by early 2012.
Recession in the EU Approaching
Every member of the EU, including Germany, France, Italy, and in some respects Greece have continued to advance austerity initiatives. But overall, we have seen very poor leadership from the IMF and EU. The failed policies, disjointed efforts and slow response of these institutions have caused confidence to weaken. As a result, we are expecting a recession in the EU in 2012 (90% confidence), with Germany and France experiencing a less severe blow.
As I detailed in previous issues, the EU and IMF have forced Greek officials to sell off critical public assets at pennies on the dollar to the same bankers which were largely responsible for the nation’s economic collapse.
Adding to this theft engineered by the international banking cartel, the European establishment strong-armed Greek officials to pass a new property tax to be levied on all Greek home owners, tied to their electricity bill. Home owners who refuse to pay these new taxes have been informed that their electricity will be shut off. This is nothing short of extortion. Serving as a role model to all of humanity, the Greek people continue to protest. Unlike Americans, Greeks don’t have guns, but they do have heart. They also have backbone. Those who do not fight for what they have will have it stolen by those who want it more.
Although the possibility of a recession in the EU is close to certain at this point, the European Central Bank must act immediately to lower interest rates by 100 basis points over the next few months in order to contain the spillover effects.
It is also remotely possible that a recession might be avoided in Germany and France if the right elements come together at the right time, such as adequate rate cuts, continued support for EU banks and sovereign bonds by the ECB and so forth. This more optimistic outcome is predicated upon the replacement of current leadership at the ECB, EUC and IMF with competent leaders.
European Banks
While the European Central Bank has recently stepped in to purchase the debt of some banks, the EU banking system will need to be recapitalized. Otherwise, without some type of European TARP program on a much larger scale, a severe recession remains a strong possibility. The effects would surely spill over to the U.S., causing the establishment to concede “another recession.” 
Recently, German Chancellor Angela Merkel advised that Europe’s banks should look first to raise money in the private sector before turning to government assistance. The problem with this is two-fold. First, most European banks cannot issue debt because the interest rate would be prohibitively high. As well, equity financing would further hinder the banks because their market value has collapsed. Second, if the banks were to receive private financing first, the investors would benefit from government support similar to the case seen in the U.S. (Bill Gross, Warren Buffett and countless others).
The Bank of England recently initiated a second round of quantitative easing with an announcement that it planned to increase the asset purchase target by £75bn to £275bn, the first increase since November 2009.Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is likely to initiate another round of quantitative easing if either consumer spending drops to dangerous territory or else the U.S. stock market collapses below the 9800 critical support. I have addressed these possibilities in recent publications. 
Previously, I discussed the fact that the downgrade of U.S. debt was justified, but only if most other advanced nations had their debt downgraded to a larger extent. Recently, New Zealand’s sovereign debt was downgraded, followed by that of Italy. More recently, Italy was downgraded by another credit agency, along with Spain. Investors should expect several more credit downgrades for sovereign debt in Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal. We also expect France to be downgraded, as well a slew of European banks. 
While the dollar and yen are likely to continue to outperform other major currencies in coming months, we have recently become cautious on the franc due to the risks in the EU, as well as the central bank’s willingness to exert more intervention in order to reduce cost pressures on Swiss export trade. Resource-based currencies are an especially high risk right now.
U.S. Faces Great Danger of Recession
Without further stimulus, the U.S. is in danger of reentering an “official recession” (70% confidence) in 2012. We do not necessarily take the position advocating an economic stimulus. In fact, based on our expectations from Washington, we strongly oppose further stimulus packages because such funds are likely to be poorly spent and would not resolve the structural deficiencies that have accumulated in the U.S. economy over several decades.
We estimate 2011 in the U.S. productivity at 1.1%. Once final GDP revisions have been made, the common definition of a recession could even materialize based on the Q2 and Q3 data. Furthermore, we are expecting a very weak Christmas season. Thus, once seasonally adjusted, it is likely that an “official recession will be proclaimed by early 2012 (which could predate the report). Thus, at this stage, it is not so much of a question of if, but how long the recession will last. Much of the answer will depend on how Europe handles its issues, and whether we see shocks within China, Brazil or any other nation with strong economic links to the U.S. 
EU Banking System and Sovereign Debt
In Europe, widespread concerns over sovereign debt and fiscal restructuring have severely impacted the Eurozone’s banking system. This has led to large increases in borrowing costs. As well, investors have punished Europe’s largest banks. As a result, faced with collapsed market values, many EU banks are in a vulnerable position since they now have a very limited capacity to raise equity and debt financing. This has obviously compounded what was already a problematic situation. 
Since the beginning of 2010, the IMF has estimated that many European nations have experienced such a high level of sovereign credit risk that borrowing costs have increased by €200 billion. This amount represents the additional costs due to higher interest rates associated with new loans and refinancing transactions. Our own estimates indicate these costs to be €320 billion. Finally, we estimate that borrowing costs could approach €1 trillion within 18 months if the EU does not act now to contain the crisis. 
Meanwhile, recapitalization of the EU banking system is a much larger, more costly endeavor that is likely to cost several trillion euros, depending on the sequence of events, when the banks are capitalized, by how much, and how the economy responds. Note that while TARP funds were around $800 billion, the bulk of the recapitalization process has been hidden by the 25bp interest rates. It is doubtful that the EU would be able to structure a large portion of recapitalization without a significant threat of severe inflation. This emphasizes the relevance of America’s dollar-oil link.  
America’s Ace in the Hole
While the U.S. economy faces several challenges, it is by no means in a more enviable position than the predicament in the EU. The only real economic advantage the U.S. holds over the EU is the dollar-oil link which I have discussed ad nauseam for several years. This is a very powerful lever for the U.S. economy, enabling it to print a vast amount of currency while exporting a good deal of inflation across the globe. Thus, if for any reason this link is severed, it would most certainly result in an economic catastrophe of historic proportions. Even a serious threat of severance of this link could initiate a full-scale war in the Middle East. While the dollar-oil link certainly provides a failsafe during crises, as well as a means of global taxation, it does nothing to address the fundamental issues responsible for America’s economic erosion. 
The U.S. housing market remains on life support, all while Washington and the Federal Reserve continue to intervene with various measures in order to lower mortgage rates. This remains as the final means by which to provide consumers with additional disposable income that has not come from borrowed funds. Make no mistake. The measures taken by Washington and the Federal Reserve represent acts of desperation. Unfortunately, similar to all over strategies, this one is unlikely to help much. Many homeowners have already refinanced over the past three years, while others are unable to qualify due to a variety of reasons. 
Perhaps most worrisome from both a short- and medium-term perspective is the trend of persistently high unemployment. Washington has done absolutely nothing of any substance to address real job creation. President Obama’s America’s Jobs Act represents yet another ineffective solution, much like his Jobs Council which is comprised of some of the same villains who have been responsible for millions of job losses. It’s truly shocking to witness repetitious patterns of neglect and failure by Washington, lack of criminal prosecution of thousands of criminals responsible for destroying the global economy, and apathy of Americans. We are witnessing a historic turning point in all of human kind.
Job Creation Solution
The only solution to America’s bleak job picture will come from a radical restructuring of trade policy. But this is not likely to occur because it would mean that corporate America, the true ruling entity of the U.S., would receive smaller profits. Keep in mind that corporate America is set to record high profits for 2011. Moreover, profit margins are not far off of the 13.9% record set prior to the crisis in 2007, currently at around 13.4%, versus around an average of about 8.5% over the past three decades.
Simple Solutions Neglected by Washington
Over a longer period, the U.S. faces numerous sovereign risks due to rapidly increasing payments for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. As well, state and local governments will face major problems if they have not restructured their pensions.
As discussed last month, if Washington did not spend what will likely be at least $4 trillion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and $3 trillion net (and counting) for the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy (extended by Obama), the U.S. would be able to address the issues with its entitlement system with much more ease. In addition, Washington would have much more financial power to address the current depression. 
In response to worries of another financial crisis centered this time in the EU, investors have flocked into U.S. Treasury securities. This has pushed yields down to record-lows, as investors remain concerned over the deepening problems in Europe. Meanwhile, commodities have been under severe pressure, as investors anticipate a severe slowdown in the global economy will lead to reduced demand. Oil, silver, gold and copper have been hit particularly hard over the past few weeks.
IMF and Wall Street Blow it, AGAIN
Once again, the IMF cut U.S. GDP growth forecasts to 1.5% and 1.8% for 2011 and 2012, respectively. In June, the IMF forecast 2.5% and 2.7% GDP growth in 2011 and 2012, respectively. This latest revision comes closer to the organization’s 2% benchmark for a global recession. 
In contrast, the consensus of Wall Street analysts and private economists have cut their GDP growth estimates to 1.5% and 2.2% for 2011 and 2012, respectively. 
In August, Morgan Stanley cut its global forecast for GDP growth down to 3.9% (from 4.2%) and 3.8% (from 4.5%) for 2011 and 2012, respectively.
On September 29, Citigroup slashed its global GDP growth forecast to 3% and 2.9% for 2011 and 2012, respectively. This was the bank’s second downward revision in less than a month.
As if it meant anything, Citigroup downgraded its outlook for the United States, Europe, Japan, Canada and the UK. Once again, this is a prime example of delayed response by Wall Street analysts. The firm also slashed its view slightly on China's 2012 growth rate, to 8.7% from 9%. This revision by no means adjusts for the risks seen to the global economy, much less internal risks growing from within China. I would have expected a credible analyst to have cut China’s growth to 7.5% by now.  
Goldman Sachs lowered its global GDP growth estimates to 3.8% and 3.5%, for 2012 and 2012 respectively, versus its previous 3.9% and 4.2% estimates. They also reduced GDP growth estimates for the U.S. to 1.7% and 1.4% in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
Emerging Market Risk
Unlike the previous period whereby emerging markets shined while the advanced world lingered through a long and severe recession, we continue to see more signs of problems in select emerging markets. These mounting risks could swell to create a devastating collapse, given the right formula and sequence of events.
Over the past several months we have warned of overheating pressures in nations like Brazil. Asia has also moved into the high-risk category due to the massive foreign inflows from advanced economy banks and institutional investors.
Any sudden global shock could cause mass exodus of funds from emerging nations, sending them into a severe collapse. Many emerging markets have been experiencing rapid loan growth over the past few years. However, consumer defaults have soared in Brazil, as many consumers have been provided with access to consumer credit for the first time.
On September 29, Brazil's central bank lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2011 to 3.5%, from 4% that it expected in June, versus 7.5% growth it experienced last year.
While Brazil has done a spectacular job of rescuing millions from deep poverty, and elevating a large group of impoverished into the middle class, the nation faces the daunting task of navigating its growth ambitions with inflation containment.
The recent collapse in the real has been a warm welcome to Brazilian exporters, but more downside to the real is needed. Finally, Brazil must guard against the possibility of a sudden withdrawal of foreign capital as a consequence of a global shock.
China’s red hot economy is showing signs of weakening due to recent weak PMI and manufacturing data. The purchasing managers index for September was steady at 49.9, its lowest quarterly average since early 2009, implying a slight contraction in activity.  
The monthly survey also reported higher prices for materials and other manufacturing inputs rising at the fastest pace in four months.
China has attempted to halt inflation all while keeping growth strong by raising interest rates several times over the past several months. However, inflation is now hit a 3-year high at over 6%. 
As well, valid concerns regarding China’s real estate bubble continue to mount. We discussed this on a live call a few months ago. 
More recently, some investors are very worried about China’s informal lending sector or shadow banking system, estimated at a size of over $625 billion, with an 50% annual growth rate. It has been estimated that more than half of these loans have been issued to small and medium-sized real estate developers, who are charged annual interest rates of as high as 70%. 
In a recently published research report discussing the rapid growth of this segment, Credit Suisse analysts in Hong Kong referred to it as a “time bomb.” The analysts claimed that the shadow banking system is out of control and now poses greater risks to the economy than the debt issues in local governments, due in part to the inability of the Chinese government to properly monitor, control and intervene in this market. Credit Suisse analysts conclude that a sudden shock to the shadow banking system could significantly damage nearly every sector of the Chinese economy.
While we recognize the shadow banking sector in China as a significant problem, we feel the estimated impact of a meltdown in this sector is overblown. However, when combined with the risk of a severe correction in Chinese real estate, the risks of a severe shock to the Chinese economy are very real, and something to remain concerned about. 
America’s Only Remaining Solution
The media works with the government, think tanks, academia and other institutions to keep Americans within the confines of enslavement, pointing to their ability to change the course of the nation through voting. However, democracy no longer exists in the U.S.
With much regret, I conclude there is but one real remedy for America. The only way needed changes will come is by force, through a violent revolution by Americans who are fed up with the massive crime, fraud and exploitation, and understand their dire future if they fail to act.
Unfortunately for America, such a revolution is not likely anytime soon due to the pervasive control of most Americans by the media, as well as the fear American have for their government.
When the people fear the government, you have tyranny. When the government no longer serves the best interests of the people, it is time to overthrow them. This is a right granted to all Americans by the Founding Fathers of the United States. The Declaration of Independence establishes the right and duty to defend the rights of the people against acts of government. 
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