"There are two sorts of wealth-getting, as I have said; one is a part of household management, the other is retail trade: the former necessary and honorable, while that which consists in exchange is justly censured; for it is unnatural, and a mode by which men gain from one another. The most hated sort, and with the greatest reason, is usury, which makes a gain out of money itself, and not from the natural object of it. For money was intended to be used in exchange, but not to increase at interest. And this term interest, which means the birth of money from money, is applied to the breeding of money because the offspring resembles the parent. Wherefore of modes of getting wealth this is the most unnatural."

- Politics, Aristotle, 350 B.C.

"The Jew alone regards his race as superior to humanity, and looks forward not to its ultimate union with other races, but to its triumph over them all and to its final ascendancy under the leadership of a tribal Messiah."

- Goldwin Smith, The Jewish Question, October 1881

“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.”

- President Woodrow Wilson 1916

“We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries.”

- David Rockefeller, Baden-Baden, Germany 1991

“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”

- Henry Ford 

“The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the larger centers has owned the Government ever since the days of Andrew Jackson.”

- Franklin D. Roosevelt, letter to Col. House, November 21, l933

“One of the least understood strategies of the world revolution now moving rapidly toward its goal is the use of mind control as a major means of obtaining the consent of the people who will be subjects of the New World Order.”

- The National Educator, K.M. Heaton

"We Jews, we, the destroyers, will remain the destroyers for ever. Nothing that you will do will meet our needs and demands. We will for ever destroy because we need a world of our own, a God-world, which it is not in your nature to build."

- Maurice Samuels, You Gentiles, 1924

“We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis and the nations will accept the New World Order.”

- David Rockefeller 

“Today, America would be outraged if U.N. troops entered Los Angeles to restore order. Tomorrow they will be grateful! This is especially true if they were told that there were an outside threat from beyond, whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. It is then that all peoples of the world will plead to deliver them from this evil. The one thing every man fears is the unknown. When presented with this scenario, individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well-being granted to them by the World Government.”

- Dr. Henry Kissinger, Bilderberger Conference, Evians, France, 1991

How to Think Clearly

"Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." –Mark Twain

If you want to begin to understand and appreciate the work of Mike Stathis, from his market forecasts and securities analysis to his political and economic analysis, you will first need to learn how to think clearly. For many, this will be a cleansing process that could take quite a long time to complete depending on each individual.

The best way to begin to clear your mind is to first move forward with this series of steps:

1. GET RID OF YOUR TV SET (at least cancel your cable)


3. DO NOT USE A "SMART PHONE" (or at least do not use your phone to access the internet)


The cleansing process will take time but you can hasten the process by being proactive in exercising your mind.

You should also be aware of a very common behavior exhibited by humans who have been exposed to the various aspects of modern society. This behavior occurs when an individual overestimates his abilities and knowledge, while underestimating his weaknesses and lack of understanding. This behavior has been coined the "Dunning-Kruger Effect" after to sociologists who described it in a research publication. See here.

Many people today think they are virtual experts on every topic they regard with relevance. The reason for this illusory behavior is because these individuals typically allow themselves to become brainwashed by various media outlets. The more information these individuals obtain on these topics from the media, the more qualified they feel they are in these subjects, without realizing that the media is not a valid source with which to use for understanding something. The media always has bias and can never be relied on to represent the full truth.

A perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen with many individuals who listen to talk radio shows. These shows are politically biased and consist of individuals who resemble used car salesmen more than intellectuals. These talking heads brainwash their audience with cherry-picked facts, misstatements and lies regarding relevant issues such as healthcare, immigration, Social Security, Medicaid, economics, science, and so forth. They also select guests for interview based on the agendas they wish to fulfill with their advertisers.

Once their audience has been indoctrinated by these propagandists, they feel qualified to discuss these topics on the same level as a real authority, without realizing that they obtained their understanding from individuals who are employed as professional liars and manipulators by the media.  Another good example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen upon examination of political pundits, stock market and economic analysts on TV.  They talk a good game because they are professional speakers. But once you examine their track record, it is clear that these individuals are largely wrong, but they have developed an inflated sense of expertise and knowledge on topics for which they continuously demonstrate their incompetence.

One of the most insightful analogies created to explain how things are often not what you see was Plato's Allegory of the Cave, from Book 7 of the Republic.

We highly recommend that you study this masterpiece in great detail so that you are better able to use logic and reason.Although we recommend you read and study The Allegory of the Cave, you can get a flavor for its meaning by watching the following video. 

If you can learn how to think like a philosopher, specifically one of the great ancient Greek philosophers, it is highly unlikely that you will ever be fooled by con artists like those who make ridiculous and unfounded claims in order to pump gold and silver, the typical get-rich-quick or multi-level marketing (MLM) crowd.

STOP Being Taken

“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.”

King James Bible - Matthew 7:15

"It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." –Mark Twain

All Viewpoints Are Not Created Equal Just because something is published in print, online or aired in the broadcast media does not make it accurate.  In fact, more often than not the larger the audience, the more likely the content is either inaccurate or slanted. The next time you read something about economics or investments, you should ask two main questions in order to assess the credibility of the source. Is the source biased in any way?   That is, do they have any agendas which would provide any type of benefit accounting for their views? Most individuals either sell ads on their site or are dealers of precious metals or securities. That means their views are biased and cannot be relied upon.

Is your source is credible?  

Most people associate credibility with name-recognition. But more often than not, name-recognition serves as a predictor of bias if not lack of credibility because the more a name is recognized, the more the individual has been plastered in the media. And every intelligent person knows that individuals who have been provided with media exposure because they are either naive or clueless. The media positions these types of individuals as “credible experts” in order to please its financial sponsors; Wall Street. 

Instead of name-recognition or media celebrity status, you must determine whether your source has relevant experience on Wall Street as opposed to being self-taught. But this is just a basic hurdle that in itself by no means ensures the source is competent or credible. More important, always examine the track record of your source in depth, looking for accuracy and specific forecasts rather than open-ended statements. You must also look for timing since a broken clock is always right once a day.  Finally, make sure they do not cherry-pick their best calls. Always examine their entire track record. 

“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.”

King James Bible - Matthew 7:15

The above questions require only slight modification for use in determining the credibility of sources that discuss other topics, such as politics, healthcare, etc.We have compiled the most extensive publication exposing hundreds of con men pertaining to the financial publishing and securities industry, although we also cover numerous con men in the media and other front groups since they are all associated in some way with each other. There is perhaps no one else in the world capable of shedding the full light on these con men other than Mike Stathis. Mike has been studying the indistry for well over a decade. Alhough he has published numerous articles and videos addressing this dark side of the industry, the entire collection can be found in our ENCYCLOPEDIA of Bozos, Hacks, Snake Oil Salesmen and Faux Heroes
At AVA Investment Analytics, we don't try to pump gold, silver or equities like many others you see because we are not promoters or marketers. And we do not receive any compensation whatsoever (including from ads) from our content. We provide individual investors, financial advisers, analysts and fund managers with world-class research, education and unique insight.

Media Lies

If you listen to the media, most likely it is costing you hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost money at minimum over the course of your lifetime. The deceit, lies and useless guidance from the financial media certainly is a large contributor of these losses to the sheep you pay attention.

But a good deal of lost wealth comes in the form of excessive consumerism which the media seeks to impose on its audience. You aren’t going to know that you’re being brainwashed or that you have lost $1 million or $2 million over your life time due to the media, but I can guarantee you that with rare exception this is the reality for those who are naïve enough to waste time on the media.

It gets worse. By listening to the media, you are likely to also suffer ill health effects through the lack of timely coverage of toxic prescription drugs or through the ridiculous medical shows, all of which are supportive of the medical-industrial complex.

And if you seek out the so-called "alternative media" you might make the mistake of relying on con men like Kevin Trudeau or Alex Jones. This could be a deadly decision. As bad as traditional media is, the so-called "alternative media" is even worse.

Why Does the Media Air Liars and Con Men?

The goal of the media is NOT to serve its audience because the audience does NOT pay the bills.

The goal of the media is to please its sponsors, or the companies that spend huge dollars buying ads, and in order for companies to justify these expenses, they need the media to represent their cause. The media does this by airing idiots and con men who mislead and confuse their audience.

By engaging in "journalistic fraud," the media steers its audience into the arms of its advertisers because the audience is now misled and confused, so in the case of the financial media, it seeks the assistance of Wall Street brokerage firms, mutual funds, insurance companies, precious metals dealers. This is why advertisers pay big money to be promoted in the financial media.

We see the same thing on a more obvious note in the so-called "alternative media," which is really a remanufactured version of the so-called "mainstream media." Do not be fooled. There is no such thing as the "alternative media." 

In order to be considered "media" you must have content that has widespread channels of distribution. Thus, all "media" is widely distributed and the same powers that control the distribution of the so-called "mainstream media" also control the distribution of the so-called "alternative media."

The claim that there is an "alternative media" is merely a sales pitch designed to capture the audience that has since given up on the "mainstream media."  The tactic is a very common one used by con men.

The same tactic is used by Washington to convince naive voters that there are meaningful differences between the nation's two political parties. In reality, both parties are essentially the same when it comes to issues that matter most (trade policy, healthcare and war). Anyone who tells you anything different simply isn't thinking straight.

On this site, we expose the lies and the liars in the media. We discuss and reveal the motives and track record of the media’s hand-selected charlatans with a focus on the financial media.  

Why Stathis Was Banned

No one has generated a more accurate track record in the investment markets over the past several years than Mike Stathis. Yet, the financial media wants nothing to do with Stathis.

You aren't even going to hear him on the radio being interviewed.

You aren't going to see him mentioned on any websites either.

You won't read or hear of his remarkable track record unless you read about it on this website or read his books.

You should be wondering why this might be. Some of you already know the answer.

The media has banned Mike Stathis because the trick is to air clowns so that the audience will be steered into the hands of the media's financial sponsors - Wall Street and gold dealers.

And as for the radio shows and websites that either don't know about Stathis or don't care to hear what he has to say, the fact is that they are so stupid that they assume those who are plastered in the media are credible. And since they haven't seen or heard Stathis in the media, even if they come across him, they automatically assume he's a nobody in the investment world simply because he has no media exposure.

Well, if media exposure was a testament to knowledge, credibility and excellent track records, Peter Schiff's clients would be a lot happier when they looked at their account balance.

Others only care about pitching what’s deemed as the “hot” topic because this sells ads in terms of more site visits or reads. This is why you come across so many websites based on doom and conspiratorial horse shit run by con artists looking to cash in on ads.

We have donated countless hours and huge sums of money towards the pursuit of exposing the con men, lies and fraud. We continue this mission but we cannot continue it forever without your assistance.

We have been banned by virtually every media platform in the U.S and every website (mainly because we expose the truth about gold and silver).

We have been banned from use of email marketing providers.

The fact is that the Jewish Mafia has declared war on us because we have exposed the realities of the U.S. government, Wall Street and corporate America.

Note that we only began discussing the role of Jews in criminality by 2009, three years AFTER we had been black-listed by the media, so no one can say that our criticism of the Jewish Mafia has led to being black-listed, not that it would even be acceptable.

You can talk about the Italian Mafia, and Jewish Hollywood can make 100s of movies about it...


We rely on you to help spread the word about us. Just remember this. We don’t have to do what we are doing.

We could do as everyone else and focus on making money. We are doing sacrificing everything because in this day and age, unfortunately, the truth is revolutionary. It is also critical in order to prevent the complete enslavement of world citizenry.   

Rules to Remember

On Exposure: No one who has significant exposure can be trusted because those who are responsible for permitting such exposure have allowed it for a very good reason, and that reason does not serve your best interests.

On Spotting Frauds: Whenever you wish to know whether someone can be trusted, always remember this golden rule..."a man is judged by the company he keeps."

This is a very important rule to remember because con men almost always belong to the same network.

You will see the same con artists referencing each other, on blog rolls and so forth.

  • How to Think Clearly
  • STOP Being Taken
  • Media Lies
  • Why Stathis Was Banned
  • Rules to Remember
  • X close

Harry Dent. Economist, Futurist & Contrarian Indicator

UPDATED info on Harry "Doomsday" Dent and his SHITTY track record (20014 - 2015):
In the past, I have discussed the many ways the media deceives, spins and even lies about financial information as a way to please its financial sponsors, all while creating drama so as to captivate its sheep audience.
The goal of the media is two-fold. First, the media has to establish a large audience because the size of the audience determines the amount they charge companies that pay for sponsorships and advertisements. Second, the media has to make sure to keep its corporate sponsors happy. This goes well-beyond airing the ads companies have paid for.
Since corporate America and Wall Street buy the vast majority of ads and sponsor all sorts of shows, events and programming segments, the media always slants things in the favor of corporate America and the financial industry. For drug companies, this means the media will downplay the dangers of prescription drugs or air news on harmful side effects in ways that are deemphasized. The delivery of the propaganda is finessed so as to not alert the audience that the media sleeps in the same bed as those who buy the ads.
When it comes to the financial media, the agendas are less conspicuous for those who have not been induced into a mild hypnotic trance. Unfortunately, the media uses countless tactics to induce this mild state of consciousness in its unsuspecting audience. The unique thing about the financial media is that it extends throughout the entire media monopoly. For instance, when CBS or ABC reports on the stock market, the economy and other issues they draw upon reports or even journalists from CNBC or the Wall Street Journal. As well, all major television networks, radio stations, newspapers, periodicals and websites have formed partnerships with financial media programs.
The game is simple. The financial media creates the perception of valuable programming so as to attract its audience. Financial and economic news is reported in variable degrees in order to ensure the goals of the sponsors have been met. Sometimes this results in reporting knee-jerk events, exaggerations, distractions, and other techniques. Other times the reporting is more focused but highly deceptive. Among some of the more common strategies used are flooding, censorship, stacked decks. The media is controlled both by corporate America and Washington. Thus, the media provides much more detriment than value.
The financial media seeks to create panic and fear, mania and confusion, all while spinning, lying and censoring so that its sponsors feel like their money has been well-spent. As a result, Main Street tends to act on impulse so as to trade more frequently, most often with confusion and misdirection. This benefits E-Trade, Charles Schwab, Ameritrade and other online brokerage firms. And because these investors are acting out of emotion, misinformation and deception, Wall Street is pleased because it allows them to more easily take the money of Main Street.
Other times, mutual funds and insurance companies are propped up by the slanted opinions of the financial commentators or fund analysts. This provides the opportunity for front running by both Wall Street and individuals connected to the media, whether through their friend, relatives or others within their syndicate. These acts of securities fraud occur on a daily basis and add a sizable portion to the massive skimming and other fraudulent activities that steal billions of dollars from Main Street daily. The media will never discuss how fund companies stick their customers with exorbitant fees, nor will you hear how many of the fees are hidden.
Finally, the media will never point out the fact that equity mutual funds are the absolute worst investment to have during a bear market, as this would upset the companies that spend billions of dollars advertising on these networks.
When the media interviews professionals from the financial industry, more often than not these individuals serve as marketers with terrible track records. You certainly wouldn’t come to that conclusion based on their introduction. TV journalists hype up each of their pitch men to ensure they are perceived as credible experts so you will see value in tuning in.
It is a very rare event when the media bothers to independently verify the track record of its guests. Instead, the TV journalist reads their bios as if everything that has been written is true. After all, it’s not in the best interest of journalists to uncover lies and exaggerations made by those selected to serve as members of the financial media club.
Over the past couple of years I have exposed the reality behind several individuals who have been positioned by the financial media as experts. If the media claims some guy predicted the financial crisis, then by God they must have according to the sheep. Main Street acts inherently naïve as they automatically associate media exposure with credibility instead of spending adequate time to verify track records and look for bias and agendas.
The reputation of these hacks spreads like a virus. The more they are seen and heard, the more Main Street attaches credibility to their views. Before you know it, everyone thinks Meredith Whitney, Nouriel Roubini, Marc Faber, Robert Shiller, Peter Schiff, Harry Dent, Robert Prechter, Martin Weiss and countless others predicted the financial crisis. 

More Ridiculous Market Predictions from Dent
Today I wanted to mention another individual who has been positioned by the media as a credible expert despite his dreadful track record. Perhaps you have heard of Harry Dent. Like the vast majority of this crew of mass marketers, Dent serves as a much better contrarian indicator than anything else.
Like others in the media club, Dent knows how to tell a good story. Combined with media status, Dent has been successful in terms of selling his books and newsletters. However, his track record has been another story. As you will see, similar to the other so-called experts who regularly appear in the media, Dent is a professional marketer and speaker, not a credible economist or investment expert.
Remember, real experts don’t spending most of their time giving media interviews, hitting the speaking circuit, making YouTube videos, and other marketing activities. These tasks are the focus of individuals like Robert Kiyosaki and Tony Robbins. But they are also the focus of Harry Dent, Peter Schiff and the others.
A few weeks ago, Harry Dent came out in the media with warnings of a coming market collapse over the next few months. Below I summarize Dent’s “predictions.”
The stock market could top 13,200 by late summer then collapse to 3000.
Oil and gold have already topped out and are headed down.
Real estate will go down by 50-60%.
Before I demonstrate how Dent is no different than the rest of the marketers who have been positioned as experts, let’s have a look at these “latest predictions.” 

Dent’s Stock Market Predictions
Is Dow 13,200 possible by late summer?
Yes, but not likely. I would say that Dow 13,000 is a better (although very optimistic) top. But this represents the absolute best situation. However, it is not likely with oil over $100.
Okay, so Dent’s market top isn’t such a ridiculous prediction. But this isn’t the real punch line. You see, Dent is trying to demonstrate credibility by delivering a sane (although very optimistic) forecast.
As well, he wants to go on record as one who rode the upward market momentum, knowing that it will eventually fade. However, Dent did not ride the market all the way up. As the market continued to soar past his expectations, like many other salesmen, Dent has insisted that it will come tumbling down. And when it does, Dent seems to think that the Dow will head to 3000. This is truly laughable. The only thing funnier is Robert Prechter’s Dow 1000 prediction. Interestingly, both Dent and Prechter follow some type of hocus pocus wave theory bologna.
If one attempts to forecast stock market movements using waves as their only or primary tool, they will be wrong many more times than right. Market forecasting is an extremely difficult task to achieve. One must look at a very large number of variables, each of which can change on a daily basis.  It’s always easier to know what will happen rather than when. These markers know this. That is why they keep making the same predictions for twenty or more years.
Dent knows that major bear markets come about every 12-15 years (some would argue they arise every 6 or 7 years). This might explain why he has been flip-flopping so much.
Dent uses demographics as the basis of his forecasts. This is a good strategy for a salesman or marketer because it keeps things so simply that even kids can understand the rationale.
And if you can present something that is easy to understand in a convincing way, you will sell lots of books, you will hook lots of sheep to launch a mutual fund and you will put your money where their mouth is. In the end, if you pay the slightest attention to snake oils salesmen, you will transfer money from your pocket into theirs and that of Wall Street and the media.
In order to sell lots of books you need media exposure. Selling lots of books gets you speaking gigs and more media coverage. So if you are not viewed as a team player by the media (according to its interests and that of its sponsors) you won’t get exposure, you won’t sell books, you won’t do any business. For most people, money is the focus.
Similar to the other members of the media club, this is the only thing that’s important to Dent. He doesn’t have to be right. As a good salesman he can always talk his way out of a poor track record because none of the media pinheads ever challenge his bogus claims.

Dent: Clueless on Real Estate
What about Dent’s prediction for real estate prices. If Dent had a clue what was going on, he would have come out with this prediction of real estate prices falling by 50-60% a few years ago prior to the real estate collapse.
It’s easy to keep riding the downward real estate trend. That’s the safe bet. Those who take that approach do so in order to create the perception of credibility.
Recently, I discussed how Meredith Whitney has used this same strategy.

In the article I wrote featuring Whitney, I highlighted this common tactic under the section titled “The Deviant Psychology Underlying Media Experts.” Let’s have a look at an excerpt.
“When you spot a relentless trend, you extrapolate the trend when making predictions. Through this approach you are playing better odds. For instance, when a region experiences a period of harsh weather, an opportunist looking to position himself as a prophet will predict more bad weather to come.
We saw how this tactic was used a couple of years ago when several extremists began to predict that all banks would fail only after Bear Stearns, Fannie, Freddie, Washington Mutual, AIG and Lehman failed (although Washington Mutual did not really fail, as I have shown previously). Of course other banks did not fail because TARP was passed. 
I liken this approach to jumping on the extremist band wagon. As a twist, you also throw in a bit of contrarian thinking when you see excessive cheerleading from Washington and Wall Street.
The key behind this approach is to never make specific forecasts. You keep things general and open-ended so you can later fill in the blanks and wiggle your way out of the corner if you are scrutinized.
Unfortunately, the results of this deceptive strategy are frequently inaccurate because the forecasts are not based on extensive research and analysis. Moreover, extreme extrapolation and irrational contrarian thinking often fails to consider intangible variables which often come into play and alter the course or severity of the trend that has been extrapolated.
In the end, individuals utilizing this manipulative strategy are doing nothing other than spewing hot air and having their hands. Not everyone is capable of executing this strategy because it requires a person to be inherently dishonest and deceitful.”
It’s really remarkable to me how a man like Dent could be so far off on his grim real estate prediction. After all, he loves to remind everyone of his Harvard MBA. Perhaps this explains why he has no idea what he is talking about.
Keep in mind that this is the man who felt there would be a problem in real estate in 2010 due to demographics; the retirement of baby boomers. At the same time, just a few years ago Dent stated that retirement havens like Florida would represent great real estate investment opportunities due to the baby boomer retirement wave.
Nowhere in any of Dent’s countless books or their seemingly annual revisions will you see Dent discuss real estate fraud, Wall Street fraud, the implosion of the MBS or any of the other causes of the real estate meltdown.
Dent has stuck with his simplistic and inaccurate demographics approach for more than thirty years. And it has been shown to be wrong more times than right. As a result of his tunnel vision, Dent is unable to see clearly.
Dent puts out so many books and revisions that he covers all scenarios. Other times, he keeps forecasting the same thing a decade later after it failed to materialize in the previous decade. For instance, in the early 1990s, Dent predicted a real estate market crash that would send home prices down by 30%-50% in the U.S. expected in 1994-95, based on his demographic analysis.  This was a huge blunder.

Real Estate Forecasting 101
It’s quite simple Harry. Let me show you it’s done. You take the historical house pricing slope and you regress current prices to the slope. Now, if housing would have collapsed completely in 2008 down to this slope, it might have gone down by around 40%. This would have represented an undershoot of the price slope. That is, real estate prices would have become considerably undervalued from a historical standpoint.
Asset price “undershoots” are commonly observed only after a rapid and full correction in the same manner as overshoots are observed prior to the implosion of an asset bubble. However, the real estate bubble has taken several years to deflate. This has all but removed the possibility of an undershoot or exaggerated price correction.
Moreover, because it typically takes time for large asset bubbles to deflate, the slope of the price curve extends outward. This means the median price will gradually rise along with the long-term historical price trend. So as time passes, the actual price decline will be less than this 40% for these two reasons (failure of prices to correct quickly and a gradual increase in the price trend with time).
Let me give you an example. Below is a chart from America’s Financial Apocalypse (2006 extended version, p. 200). I have drawn a rough trend line from the initial stages of the real estate bubble. That’s right. The real estate bubble actually began in the late 1990s. However, it was sustainable in the early years because the excess appreciation could be absorbed into the economy. As you can see, it didn’t really become a huge problem (in other words, it became unsustainable) until 2005. By mid-2006 it was evident the bubble would be unable to swell for much longer.
Notice that the blue trend line representing existing median home prices lies slightly above the CPI. This is due to the fact that from an historical basis, home prices have appreciated just a tad higher than inflation. This is something many investors were unaware of. I discussed this in AFA.
Now if you were to extrapolate the blue trend line from this chart to 2008 when the real estate bubble was in the collapse mode, the median home price would have come in at around $162,000, representing a drop from the peak (as shown by the $240,000 mark in November 2005) of 32.5%.
But median real estate prices actually peaked around mid-2006 at around $260,000. Therefore, if we calculate the magnitude of excessive real estate pricing based on the trend line in 2008 (when the collapse had been confirmed), and then compare it to the 2006 peak we come up with $260,000 - $162,000, or a decline of nearly 38%.
However, more than three years have passed since 2008 and real estate pricing still has not bottomed. If we extrapolate this blue trend line to early 2011, it comes to around $178,000. So, if we look at the decline in prices since the 2006 peak, this represents a decline of 31.5%.  
Remember, this is only a rough analysis. You will get different results depending on the data used, but I think you get the point. There has been no undershoot in median real estate pricing relative to the long-term price trend (represented by the blue line) because the bubble deflation has been extended over time. This is the assumption I made when I wrote AFA.
I knew there would be several programs by Washington to attempt to slow this deflation. I also knew that there would be no way to cheat the system. Pay back was on the way. At best, Washington would only be able to spread the devastation out over many years. Currently, existing median home prices stand at around $175,000. This is very close to the rough approximation I have made by extrapolating the blue trend line to 2011. 
Thus, with median real estate prices down by around 32-33% (depending on the source and the data used) from the peak in 2006, we are close to the bottom. Keep in mind that this analysis is based on much more than the simple presentation I have discussed. Furthermore, there are numerous unknowns that remain; unknowns that no one can predict. Therefore, anyone who substantially deviates from this approximation is going on a flawed analysis, or they are making wild assumptions of variables that no one can possibly determine.
Okay so if we are close to the bottom, does that mean it’s a good time to buy real estate? Not if your decision is based on the prospect of nice price appreciation over the next few years. For many reasons, the climb back up for real estate will be slow and steady (if we are lucky). I have detailed this analysis numerous times in several previous publications including the Intelligent Investors newsletter.
The fact is that real estate pricing will experience a very slow climb back up. And if you think you’re going to profit, I suggest you sit down and calculate your expenses over the next several years (property taxes, HOA dues, home owner’s insurance, maintenance, etc.). The fact is that with rare exception, real estate has never represented a real investment. I detailed this argument in AFA. 
So with no real signs of recovery and median real estate prices down by around 32%, Dent is going with the odds by calling for a total price decline of 50-60%. What’s funny is that just a few years ago Dent stated that investments in second homes and properties in retirement areas like Florida would do very well due to the retiring baby boomers. We all know how that turned out.
While it is impossible to know what Dent was thinking, I would narrow it down to two possibilities. Either his methods are flawed, or else he wants people to think there is much more devastation to come as a way to lure in the sheep who are panicking. Most likely, his motives are the consequence of both possibilities. After all, he is a marketer and he is obsessed with demographics as the source of economic trends.  
As many of you already know, I devoted more than 40 pages to the real estate bubble in America’s Financial Apocalypse (2006 extended version). In fact, based on all the other books I have examined this single chapter was more detailed, accurate and predictive than any single book written on the real estate bubble. This was just one of eighteen chapters of my thesis that made a case for America’s Second Great Depression.
I also advised readers to short Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, several other mortgage stocks (all of which went bankrupt) in Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble. This book was released in early 2007 before the collapse began.
See here for excerpts regarding the real estate bubble material from these two books.  
Of course, the real estate bubble was just the tip of the iceberg, as I clearly pointed out in these two books. I also focused on the healthcare crisis (which remains), the entitlement catastrophe, the pension crisis, the destructive trade policy of the U.S., wealth and income disparity, how the wealth effect would turn into the poor effect, causing Americans to boost savings, the correction of the commodity bubble, and much more.
Meanwhile, virtually no one else had an idea these things would become huge issues. Many thought commodities had no ceiling. These are salesmen, not experts. Good salesmen always stick to the same simple pitch. And they repeat it over and over, modifying it when they have been proven to be wrong and when they try to weasel out of the corner of shame when they blow their predictions. 

Dent on Commodities
Next let’s get to Dent’s forecast on commodities. While I agree that commodities may have topped out, there is currently no definitive evidence of this. Anyone who states otherwise is merely making guesses. Keep in mind that Dent was saying commodities had topped out in late 2009.
Furthermore, even if the commodities bubble corrects over the next few months, the commodities bull market is likely to remain intact for quite a few more years. So the key is to understand the intermediate- and longer-term trends and act accordingly. I discuss my own observations of early warning signs that commodities may be in the process of topping out in the April issue of the Intelligent Investors newsletter.
Next, I examine Dent's track record. Have a look here.



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Remember that Mike is not getting paid to save people from the lies about gold, silver and the economy that continue to be spread by the countless number of charlatans who are always in the media.

He does not sell precious metals and he does not sell securities.

He does not even sell advertisements.

That means he has NO AGENDAS.

In fact, he is losing a great deal of money for speaking the truth and trying to save Main Street.

How often do you hear someone spend so much time at work fighting to get the truth out when they should be focusing on sales? With the exception of Mike’s efforts, it NEVER happens.

But let's not also forget that NO ONE has been more accurate forecasting so many different things over the past several years than Mike Stathis. And his track record is in print.

Many have been fooled by snake oil salesmen to think they are on your side, when they are really looking to hook you into their sales pitch.

Mike could focus on producing videos that always highlight his amazing track record in order to generate sales, but he doesn’t.

Instead, he spends a great deal of time exposing the liars and con men out there who are duping millions of people with their gold-pumping, doomsday delusions, even though these efforts are costing Mike a great deal of lost sales.

Just remember this down the road once you look back at this period as a huge fraud perpetrated not only by Wall Street, but also by thousands of doomsday, gold-pumping charlatans. If you do not already realize they are scam artists, you will eventually if you take their advice. That is a guarantee.

Mike Stathis remains the lone voice of reason and wisdom for Main Street.



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