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Economics
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Accurate Predictions & Insights from America's Financial Apocalypse
May 17, 2012
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The following represents a brief list of accurate forecasts made in America's Financial Apocalypse. This list will be updates periodically.
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Global Economic Overview, May 2012
May 14, 2012
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As we enter a new cycle of global macroeconomic risk, the U.S. stock market continues to resist being pulled into the euro zone vortex.
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Economic Focus: Canada
Apr 19, 2012
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In this report, we analyze Canada’s economic health, its long-term fiscal challenges and examine whether the nation is experiencing a real estate bubble. In this part of the discussion, we dissect the inner workings of the Canadian real estate finance sector, pointing to striking differences and similarities with the U.S. Finally, we discuss the risks of an economic slowdown that could pose as a challenge for Canada, independent of shocks to the euro zone, as well as from a slowdown in the commodities sector.
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Opening Statement from the January 2012 Intelligent Investor Newsletter
Apr 19, 2012
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After nearly four years of harsh economic consequences, we have seen little if any progress by the criminal puppets in Washington.
Despite the continuous lies from a variety of partisan sources, there has been no real job creation. We have only heard delusions, excuses and lame duck proposals.
Without surprise, not one single individual from the economic, academic or media circle has called for the criminal prosecution of countless Wall Street executives for their role in securities fraud that wrecked the global economy.
Despite claims from the Obama Administration and its supporting institutions, there has been no Wall Street reform, no healthcare reform and no trade policy reform. Yet, Americans continue to be distracted and fooled by the media establishment, which continues provide an amble supply of talking head puppets supportive of the fascist establishment known as “democracy and free markets.”
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Data Set 1
Apr 12, 2012
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tables, charts, etc.
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April 2012 Big Picture Report (Part 1)
Apr 8, 2012
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In past issues of this publication we have discussed numerous variables we look at when forecasting the market. Our work in market forecasting is but one component of the design and implementation of a prudent investment strategy.
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December 2011 Global Economic Analysis: The Big Picture
Dec 24, 2011
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We have just released our December 2011 Global Economic Analysis research report.
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December 2011 Economic Overview
Dec 15, 2011
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Morgan Stanley recently downgraded its forecast for 2012 global growth to 3.5% from 3.8%. Remember in August, Morgan Stanley cut its global forecast for GDP growth down to 3.9% (from 4.2%) and 3.8% (from 4.5%) for 2011 and 2012, respectively.
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The Real Reason Why Unemployment Will Remain High
Dec 3, 2011
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It took quite a long time for Washington to finally concede something that was apparent; the nation’s excessively high unemployment rate would remain elevated for several years. But their admission has come with a twist.
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The State of Poverty in the US
Oct 21, 2011
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According to the U.S. Census, in the first quarter of 2010, nearly half of the population (48.5%) lived in a household that had at least one member who received some kind of government benefit.
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October 2011 Global Economic Summary
Oct 8, 2011
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The incompetency of Washington was most recently demonstrated by the debt ceiling drama. Now the dog-and-pony show staged by the ECB, EU and IMF has added to waning consumer and investor sentiment across the globe to create a crisis in confidence.
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The Reality of the Debt Ceiling Drama
Jul 31, 2011
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Over the past several weeks, the media has had a field day covering the debt ceiling talks between both political parties. It’s been dominates news headlines for more than a month. Prior to the latest distraction by the media, the focus was Casey Anthony, followed by Congressman Weiner, then Casey Anthony again.
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Economic Hightlights from July
Jul 31, 2011
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Although the global economy has mounted a superficial rebound from the trough hit in 2009, increasing risks remain, both intermediate- and longer-term.
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Cheerleading from IMF Won't Rescue the Global Economy
Jul 29, 2011
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Below we have posted the most recent revisions to economic data, including estimates through 2011 (Japan and Spain) and 2012 (U.S. and China). It will be interesting to see when the IMF decides to issue more accurate economic projections that are in-line with reality.
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2011 Mid-Year Economic Update
Jun 17, 2011
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U.S. Economy Enters the 42nd Month of Recession
Jun 15, 2011
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I have discussed the fact that the recession which officially began in December 2007, has not yet ended. Anyone who claims otherwise is either a hack or else has no idea what is going on.
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Japan Entering Recession
Jun 8, 2011
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Over the past few months I have been discussing my view that Wall Street analysts and economists, and global economic consortiums such as the IMF have been underestimating the impact of the earthquakes, tsunami and nuclear meltdown, as well the spillover effect.
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Economics
Apr 15, 2011
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German government raises 2011 real GDP growth forecast to 2.6%, while some Wall Street firms have GDP estimated considerably higher (eg. Barclays has revised up 3.3%). While Germany remains as the strength of the EU, there are some mounting pressures and early (potential) signs of road bumps.
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Most Important Events of the Week
Apr 8, 2011
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I'll keep this short. In my opinon, there were three events this week that were of any real significance.
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What is the Employment Picture in the U.S. Really Saying?
Apr 6, 2011
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As in previous months, the private sector accounted for all the job gains in February, with an addition of 222,000 positions, up from a mere 68,000 job additions in January. This represented the largest gain since April 2010. Does this represent a sign of recovery?
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Important Economic Data
Mar 17, 2011
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The PPI rose 1.6% in February, well above the consensus of 0.7%. The bulk of the upside surprise was due to a 3.9% jump in food prices. Notably, the increase in food prices was partly reflected a 48.7% surge in vegetables, which accounts for about 4% of the food index. It should be with little doubt that food prices will continue to increase globally over the next several months.
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Important Economic Data
Mar 10, 2011
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China’s trade balance fell into a deficit totaling $7.3B (largest deficit since Feb ’04). Not a huge deal, as January data was okay. However, combined with other data and growing risks of inflation/rate hikes to cool the economy, this could be the start of a new trend signaling a cool-down in the Chinese economy.
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The Two Most Important Economic Events I am Watching Right Now
Mar 2, 2011
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Right now I'm focusing on two central bank decisions remaining for this week. The first and most important in my view is that from Brazil. Last week, discussions centered around a 75bp hike. Recall that Brazil raised rates by 50bp just a few weeks ago.
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Economic and Commodities Update Released, February 26, 2011
Feb 27, 2011
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We just released another update to subscribers of the Intelligent Investor and Market Forecaster newsletters. This 15-page document discusses the implications of numerous recently announced global economic data and news. It also provides an update to the commodities section covered in the February issue of the Intelligent Investor.
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Q4 '10 and Annual GDP Data Released (Second Revision)
Feb 25, 2011
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America's Second Great Depression 2010 Year-end Update (Part 3)
Jan 5, 2011
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In support of their claims of an economic recovery, Washington cheerleaders and Wall Street hacks continue to focus on ancillary metrics like GDP and corporate profits, all while fudging inflation data.
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America's Second Great Depression 2010 Year-end Update (Part 2)
Dec 26, 2010
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Ever since the summer of 2009, economists from both Washington and Wall Street have told us that an economic recovery was in progress, but the data reveals a strikingly different picture. Some even insisted that a recovery began in late spring.
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America's Second Great Depression 2010 Year-End Update (Part 1)
Dec 16, 2010
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“Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”
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Elements of the Jewish Global Banking Mafia
Dec 15, 2010
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I have presented this information for you to keep so that he next time someone calls you an anti-Semite for saying Jews run the world's banking system, you can back up your claims with facts.
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U.S. Economic Analysis from the July 2010 Newsletter
Dec 2, 2010
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While more than five months have passed since the release of this report, it has been published to demonstrate that real forecasts and accurate insight does not change from day-to-day, week-to-week, or month-to-month.
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Rules of the Game
Nov 19, 2010
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A few months ago, I ran across a typical propaganda piece from America’s corporate media discussing why U.S. corporations aren’t hiring.
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Poverty in America: The Big Picture
Nov 11, 2010
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In America’s Financial Apocalypse, a book that has been banned by the media, I discussed the many flaws in the calculation of poverty levels within the U.S. First, let’s have a look at some excerpts from the book.
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Deflation Hype
Oct 14, 2010
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Before I discuss possibilities of deflation, I wanted to summarize my argument as to why hyperinflation isn’t going to happen in the U.S., as well as the underlying motives behind this myth. I also wanted to address the motive behind the NBER’s recent announcement that the recession ended in June 2009.
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NBER Pressured to Concede an End to the Recession in June 2009
Sep 20, 2010
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You might recall an article I wrote a few month ago, discussing ridiculous terminology that has been embraced by every sheep on earth; double-dip recession.
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Bill Gross Pushing for MORE Bailouts for PIMCO
Aug 23, 2010
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Two years ago when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were collapsing, former Goldman Sachs CEO and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson repeated the promise of “no more bailouts,” so as to calm ...
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Why Hyperinflation Isn't Coming to the U.S.
Aug 6, 2010
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For more than two years now, many Americans have heard warnings of hyperinflation from the large consensus of misguided individuals, whose agendas serve as the basis for their ridiculous claims.
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Moving an Inch Closer Towards a Free Market Economy
Aug 4, 2010
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A few months ago, I discussed the fact that the U.S. really doesn't have a free market economy, as so many claim. Once you spend some time examining the activities of various industries, this bec...
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Double-Dips, Economics and Ice Cream Cones
Jul 7, 2010
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I want to expand on a short discussion from the economic section of the July newsletter. And I am making it avaliable for everyone because I want to show you how you are being fooled b...
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Is the Dallas Economy Really that Healthy?
May 21, 2010
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A few weeks ago, I discussed the fact that the media has been fabricating signs of recovery in certain cities across America.
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Europe: Taking the Path Blazed by the U.S. with Similar Consequences to Come
May 10, 2010
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After the threat of a continued sell-off in the global capital markets, leaders of the EU, IMF (and most likely members of the White House) arranged an emergency bailout fund to calm the markets.
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Should California Get a Bailout?
Apr 15, 2010
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As some readers might recall, without budget solutions from the Governor and Legislature, the California State Controller was forced to issue IOUs to several State payees last July in order to...
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Would You Celebrate Losing $300 Million?
Apr 12, 2010
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On Sunday, Dallas celebrated the destruction of a $300 million property; $300 million of taxpayer money down the drain. I'm talking of course about the demolition of Texas Stadium, former home to the ...
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The Global Bubble Has Reflated
Apr 5, 2010
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Back in the Spring of 2009, the World Bank forecast that the global economy would contract by 1.7% that year; the first global contraction since the Great Depression (yet another clear indicator we are in a depression).
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More Propaganda from Washington's Corporate Media Partner
Mar 12, 2010
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Last week, Forbes published an article discussing cities across the U.S. "where the recession is ending."
Let me begin in a tone that many of you have come to expect.
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America. What Went Wrong (Part 2)
Feb 9, 2010
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Continuing where I left off from last time...
Rather than huge manufacturing industries reminiscent of America’s “Old Economy,” the “New Economy” is char...
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The ONLY Man Qualified to Serve as U.S. President in Four Decades
Feb 6, 2010
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Over the next several days I'm going to write a piece on the man I feel was the only qualified presidential candidate in more than four decades, Ross Perot Sr.
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America. What Went Wrong? (Part 1)
Jan 28, 2010
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As I have detailed with extensive data and accompanying analysis in America's Financial Apocalypse (2006/expanded and 2007/condensed), America’s once great economy has been gradually transformed...
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The Realities of America's Free Market Economy
Jan 15, 2010
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On many occassions, I have made mention of the fact that, despite popular belief, America's economy really does not operate with free market dynamics.
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Signs of a Depression
Jan 6, 2010
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I wanted to remind you not to lose sight of the big picture. It’s advisable to try to make money during an illusion only if you know the reality.
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Fiscal Survey of States
Oct 24, 2009
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I've been working overtime on my soon-to-be-released healthcare book. The problem is that in the editing process, I keep running across new information that I can't help but to add.
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This is News?
Sep 27, 2009
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I recently ran across a story that I wanted to show you because I wanted to point out a few things. It was written by the Associated Press, so that means it was syndicated in hundreds of newspapers ac...
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Bernanke:
Sep 16, 2009
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As I correctly identified a couple of months ago, the propaganda campaign by the media, Washington and Wall Street has been very strong and continues to grow each day.
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Another Victim of America's Ponzi Scheme Economy (Part 1)
Jul 8, 2009
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As of yesterday, Lear Corp., an auto parts supplier for the "Little 3" joined the list of others who have been victimized by the collapse of America’s Ponzi scheme economy.
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Another Victim of America's Ponzi Scheme Economy (Part 2)
Jul 8, 2009
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Today, America’s “New Economy” is based exclusively on services - primarily financial and technology-based services, with a whole slew of attorneys and consult
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More Propaganda from Kudlow
Jun 28, 2009
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In case you don’t know who Larry Kudlow is, he’s one of the CNBC hacks who continued to claim the economy was strong though most of 2008. Kudlow epitomizes the word hack.
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7 Myths About US-China Trade and Investment
Jun 26, 2009
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Attached below in PDF is a propaganda piece I came across while doing some research. It serves to illustrate a valuable lesson, as well as remind you about reality.
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Special Presentation Released
May 23, 2009
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All paid subscribers of the newsletter will soon be receiving a special 100-slide PowerPoint presentation from a lecture I gave to investment professionals last year.
The title of the lecture i...
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Learning from Japan
Apr 24, 2009
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I ran across an interesting story about how Japan is using a somewhat innovative approach to deal with its own symptoms of what will eventually be recorded in history books as the global depre...
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The Deflation Myth
Mar 15, 2009
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For some strange reason, economists, and those who actually give credence to what they say seem to think that a single period eighty years ago set a precedent cast in stone for what to expect from thi...
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If You Listen to Economists You Will Go Broke
Oct 10, 2008
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In my last piece, I think I made it clear that the vast majority of economists are not only clueless, but very dangerous to your financial health. Make no mistake.
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Economists Need to Sit Down and Shut Up
Oct 7, 2008
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I’m really sick and tired of these economists out there who continue to claim that America will not enter a depression. These are the same bozos that have yet to acknowledge the fact that the U....
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America's Financial Apocalypse: It's Not Going Away Anytime Soon
Sep 19, 2008
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For many years now we’ve all seen the reckless use of taxpayer funds by Washington. This irresponsible and unaccountable waste of tax dollars has been particularly prominent during President Bus...
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Payback is a BITCH
Sep 11, 2008
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Despite attempts made by Greenspan and Bernanke, there is no way to avert the payback period that has been building for over two decades. Over this stretch, America has consumed much more than it has ...
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Greenspan, Get Lost!
Sep 10, 2008
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Mr. Greenspan, you have been the individual most responsible for the current crisis; a crisis which commenced only a few years after you tried to minimize the dotcom collapse, which of course you also...
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The Housing Mess the Experts Missed
Aug 14, 2008
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Games Washington Plays. Trick #4: Off-Balance Financing
Aug 2, 2008
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As you may recall, in February 2008 President Bush unveiled a whopping $3.1 trillion budget that boost military spending and reduced health benefits for retirees...
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Games Washington Plays. Trick #3: Employment Data
Jul 31, 2008
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The government and related agencies are responsible for reporting the nation’s economic data.
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Games Washington Plays: Trick #2, GDP Delusions
Jul 28, 2008
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I continue where I left off – discussing just a few of the ways Washington tries to fool us by its misuse and manipulation of data.
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Games Washington Plays. Trick #1: Hedonic Pricing
Jul 27, 2008
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For all of you out there who listen to economists and think they know what’s going on, hopefully you will begin to realize that the official data you see is nothing but an illusion after you rea...
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Ford As A Crystal Ball for America
Jul 10, 2008
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As many of you may know, on March 27, 2008, Ford (F) completed negotiations to sell its Jaguar and Land Rover divisions to Tata Motors (TTM), a division of the Indian conglomerate Tata Group (...
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Cheaters Never Win: The Case Against Ethanol
May 5, 2008
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I find it ridiculous that Washington has led America into another trap by supporting ethanol. By now, we all know how expensive it is to produce ethanol from agricultural sources.
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Current State of the Economy
Sep 1, 2006
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Despite recent reports of improvements in unemployment numbers and record corporate earnings growth, the state of the U.S. economy and financial markets are not what they may seem.
Much...
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Follow the Leader
Aug 1, 2006
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Those of you who have been reading this newsletterfor some time now realize that virtually everything I have predicted has come true, from oil prices to gold, from market forecasting calls to individu...
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Greenspan: A Fan of China
Jun 1, 2006
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This is the reality as I see it: Back in 2001, the US government realized that a full correction from the Internet Bubble would have been devastating since in its early stages alone, it destro...
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The Recovery is Strong?
Mar 3, 2006
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All throughout the post-bubble period, Greenspan and President Bush have been claiming how "solid" and “strong” the recovery has been since the recession of 2001-2002 ...
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