First of all, this very unbiased piece on gold is invaluable. Thank you for publishing it!

I'm still wondering about a few things.

In part 3, gold market manipulation is mentioned, and I have no doubt about it. "But this creates an illusion (i.e. extreme overvaluation) that rarely lasts" Oops? I've seen so many indications for naked short selling and more paper gold being traded than physical gold being available that I was surprised to read that. I definitely believe that professional investors wanted to trade gold and pushed its price by investing in ETFs but aren't there still too many short positions out there? (Not that I believe that'll end soon.)

So to be sure I get this right, is the point that the ETF demand dominates the price?

Which brings me to the 2 year price chart in part 2. Many claim the gold price had been pressed down prior to the Bear Sterns incident, for example, because "a high gold price would show everyone how bad the situation is". I'm not a fan of this explanation; I think it might as well have been the case that some liquidity was urgently needed. On the other hand, I remember witnessing an intraday gold price drop in spring prior to an unpleasant announcement, and wondering why this really happened. So I'm still not sure who has the upper hand in the gold market. I'd love to know who really holds how much physical and paper gold and in whose name. But I presume I'm going to die prior to reliable and transparent information being disclosed, (should that ever be the case). ;)

Changing from a purely curious point of view to an investor's and individual's, I'd still love to learn more. Like:

1) Personally I'd feel more comfortable with a few American Eagles in my pocket than with a few California IOUs.

2) Trading gold would best be done in paper form, but this often goes hand in hand with the risk that the issuer defaults.

1 + 2 => How high do you think the risk of a market failure is?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting to get substantial and unbiased answers to these questions anywhere for free, and these three articles about gold are the best I found anywhere on the Web. I'm just meaning to speak out on what has the potential to drive me crazy, given all the repeatedly appearing disinformation out there (from BOTH sides, actually).

Gold ETF demand has NOTHING to do with the price of gold (other than the amount of gold bought by the ETFs and removed from the market, which is a small factor). Gold ETFs mimic the price of gold with each share representing 1/10 ounce. Market manipulation occurs with the big banks via derivatives.

You won't find a series of articles anywhere else discussing the truth about gold as I have published for 2 reasons. The vast majority of people out there are clueless and run with the gold myths. The others are trying to create a self-fulfilling prophacy by spreading these myths.

So you and everyone else who appreciate this piece and others I write should be spreading the word about this site. I find it disgusting that others who have no professional experience, no track record and are morons looking to profit from everyone's desperation have assembled fan clubs who flood the Internet promoting these idiots, and I have received no promotion.

If you guys think I will continue to devote the massive amount of time providing free content when only 200 or 300 people read them, you're mistaken.

If you want the content to continue, you need to take it upon yourselves to flood the Internet telling people about this site. Otherwise, I plan to slow postings and eventually stop for non-paying customers.

The fact is I am the ONLY person out there who can be relied upon for unbiased and accurate investment intelligence. But I cannot continue to devote the time to waking only 200 people up. My articles should be read by millions.

The slowing process will begin this week as you shall see. I have too many other things I need to do.

Once I'm gone, I'm NOT coming back, guaranteed. And you all will be on your own to face the liars, idiots, crooks, and vultures.

Hello.

The article hit home for me since, being older, I remember 100 dollar gold going to 800 dollars during the Hunt brothers grab for silver. To add to the mix, Jimmy Carter was president, interest rates were over 20%. There were odd/even gas lines in which you could only get gas every other day. Many times, gas stations were closed for lack of gas and the lines in August were long and hot. The media was printing the earth was running out of gas. That was 30 years ago. The expression "there was nothing new under the Sun" is true then as it is today.

I actually made money since I had a paper route and had allot of silver half dollars. Being young, I had no gold then but I never forgot that time. It was fast and furious. Twenty years later, I started buying gold for the wrong reasons and most of the points made in the article came true. Everyone was buying and so did I. Bullion, ungraded coins (NEVER BUY THOSE) and graded coins later. I held them for security reason and 16 years later, guess what, I lost money. Had I invested in a government saving bond, my money would have doubled. To add salt to the wound, I sold them at a lost and next year, gold goes from 300 to 600 dollars. ugg!!!

OK, I said, live and learn. I was bitter but I went back in when the market crash in 2008. Why get back in? Two reasons. The first was pride. OK, that's not good. The second is because of the US Government. Up to now, the people ripping me off was the gold market, my inexperience, gold dealers and timing. Gold dealers know how to play you and big money can move bullion markets like a large stone thrown in a lake. As iron sharpens iron, this is how we learn and I consider this rough but acceptable until now. The US Government, my government is selling naked shorts in gold and silver (Google GATA articles on this). The US Government, my government owns a private company like GM. The US Government, my government is giving tax dollars to people in high places, banks and investment firms, who can cover their mistakes. The end result of the this will be: 1) Higher Taxes 2) A lower standard of living in America 3) Less freedom 4) A lower Dollar 5) And I believer a total breakdown in the why America and it's people will behave going forward. Gold should already be over 2,000 dollars and those who see that should have made profits but we can't since our government has become a player in the market. They have very deep pockets.

With all of that, gold and silver can't be pushed away too quickly since there may be no next time. In the fire of this storm, the intensity could and I say could bring down all the trees. At that point, it would be foolish to assume market forces will return to normal in the short time. To walk this line, my plan this time is 80% of my money is in 1/3 physical bullion, another 1/3 in mining stocks and efts that bet against the market, and 1/3 buying and selling bullion with a company like a depository that does this. I don't have to take delivery since they store it. Other than this, I do not know what else to do. If there is a storm coming, only a foolish person stands in the way, a wise man gets out of the way. Where the wisdom of this article comes in depends on the intensity of this storm. If this is NOT THE BIG STORM, then buying gold and silver and holding gold and silver will end up as a lost like I did twenty years ago. My plan for this is to get out of physical gold and silver is based on what I remember 30 years ago. Gold went and tripled from 100 to 800 dollars. So using 300 dollars as my base, 300 goes to 600, 600 goes to 1,200 and 1,200 goes to 2,400. When I see gold closing in at 2,400, I plan to start selling in stages. Because the government is suppressing this market, it could double one or more times so I could be crying if it hits 5,000 but at that point creed sets in and you could get trapped. Remember, just because you want to sell at 5,000 doesn't mean there is another person on the other end who wants to buy it

I sure after reading this, maybe someone thinking what a waste of time but if it helps one new and unsure investor, then I did good. I like this article since it gives balance to the others who say "buy buy buy" no matter when and how much. I have printed it off and will read it when these market forces start taking off. Thanks and take care and be ready...

I think the best current advice is to NOT buy gold.

Peter Dagnino has an interesting contrarian viewpoint from a recent post on his blog, below:

1. Because of the aging population, the US economy is entering a period of stagnation.
2. The Fed has been and remains tight. They printed a lot of money, but they have just replaced a small portion of the wealth destroyed since 2007.
3. Deflation, not inflation, is what we are facing.
4. Earnings will be stagnant for many years.
5. Commodities will go nowhere.
6. Gold will be weak because of the lack of inflation.
7. Bonds are going to be the investment of choice.
8. Bonds will outperform stocks.
9. The dollar will remain firm.

I cannot say that I agree with Peter in many of the points listed above. Deflation and inflation are relative terms. Relative to this time last year, one could say we are facing deflation, but that is not how it is gauged. Virtually everyone looks at the money supply as a gauge of inflation/deflation. I am here to state for the record those who do are wrong. Because the economy is primarily determined by what consumers do, you must consider the effects of inflation on consumers.

We are experiencing inflation as I have discussed previously. Deflation is possible down the road but, other than the brief period in late 2008, we have not had deflation in several years. The last time was 2001/2002 - 2003-2004. You will note this was when the gold bull market began and the price soared.

As far as earnings, I cannot say what they will do. Common sense says yes, they will remain stagnant. HOWEVER, the inflationary effect created by the Fed is likely to increase earnings (from current levels). They will not be real earnings, but they will be treated as such.

I do not know what will happen with commodities because I do not know if they will be manipulated. Peter is using his knowledge of economic cycles to make this forecast, perhaps without accounting for manipulation. However, if you do count crude oil as a commodity (and I don't really for many reasons), this is likely to yield opposing results. Oil will go higher down the road, as a long-term trend.

Peter likens rising gold to inflation, which as you know I disagree with.

Now is the worst time to buy bonds. Why would you want to buy bonds with 0.25% short-term interest rates, very low long-term interest rates and high credit risk? I prefer to buy bonds once rates rise. While short- and long-term rates are not directly linked, I see both soaring in a few years. That is when I would buy bonds.

Bonds might outperform stocks, but that does not matter unless you buy-and-hold. For anyone else who actively manages their portfolio well, this will be untrue. Bonds outperforming stocks and vice versa is a trivial statement and only means something for those who must remain in the market at all times.

Everyone else has a choice available to them which might outperform stocks and bonds - STAYING OUT OF THE MARKET and/or selective buying after sell-offs and selling the rallies.

When you manage money or you have investments that will benefit from certain events, it is difficult to not have bias. It is human nature. I have no bias because I sell research. That doesn't ensure I will be right, but I think it is comforting to realize.

At the same time, unlike most others who provide research (Wall Street analysts, independent groups, etc.), I have managed money professionally, so I understand the other side of the picture. This experience helps me maintain a what I feel to be a level perspective.