As I correctly identified a couple of months ago, the propaganda campaign by the media, Washington and Wall Street has been very strong and continues to grow each day. It's been so effective that it has left all of the doomers in the dust, as they have been warning about a market correction for many months.
Meanwhile, subscribers of the AVAIA newsletter have I been positioned to take advantage of the hype, while understanding the downside risk.
You see, this is how the game is played. Knowing what SHOULD happen is only partially helpful. It's much more important to know what WILL happen.
And if you sit around month after month, year after year dwelling on what SHOULD happen, you will miss out on tremendous gains....kind of like how the gold bugs have been predicting doom for 20 years and missed out on huge market gains.
In order to be successful, you have to really be able to figure a lot of things out. The process is an art, but even for the best, it's by no means even close to 90% accurate.
I am reminding you of this because I want you to sit there and laugh at all of these clowns who have been warning of a market correction since May, without bothering to alter their position when the tide began to turn a couple of months later.
Once again, this is the mentality of extremists. They are only able to see one direction. The pro-Wall Street crown sees up while the gold bugs only see down. They are both clueless. I consider them rookies.
Fortunately for me, rookies make up 99.9999% of the investment world.
I won't spend much time on Bernanke's latest propaganda speech because anyone who has been reading my articles for the past several months understands my position. And anyone who is familiar with me should realize it is rare that I change my views quickly (although it does happen on occasion since I cannot control external events). In fact, my forecasts often last for one or more years without modifcation.
Subscribers to the newsletter have a much better understanding of what's going on.
In short, Bernanke has become even more confident as of late that the recession has ended for one reason only - the market has continued to rise.
But as we know, the tail does not wag the dog. I want you to remember this so you can laugh at his reaction when the market finally does correct.
Let me predict what he will say..something like "while we are out of the deep danger that threatened to send America into a depression, it will take some time to fully regain the previous economic strength....da da da da."
Before you even entertain these claims by Bernanke, ask yourself the following questions:
1) Are median wages increasing?
2) Is unemployment markedly decreasing?
3) Is the dollar gaining strength?
4) Is inflation decreasing?
The answer to each of these questions is of course, NO. Without these bear minimum requirements, you can be assured that there is no real recovery.
Finally, when you consider the fact that Obama is on track to equal Bush's record debt spending in just 2 years, things really begin to look bleak. It took Bush 8 years to add $4 trillion to the national debt.
In the best of scenarios, Obama will have added $4 by the end of his third year in office. And I will guarantee you that unemployment will still be quite high by the time this watermark has been reached. In fact, if you listened carefully to Bernanke, he essentially confirmed what I stated back in 2008, but in so many words.
What he said was that unless economic growth rises to levels substantially higher than the longer-term trend, high unemployment levels will persist for some time. Recall an article I wrote back on September 11, 2008.
I stated that we are looking at a lost decade, at minimum, as a part of America's Second Great Depression.
I'm willing to bet that if Bernanke was hooked up to a lie detector and asked if he agreed with my analysis, the only way he would pass the test is if he answered "yes."
Perhaps if Ben had read this article when it was published last year, he might have been a better prepared to curtail America's Second Great Depression, rather than reacting to it.
If he had read America's Financial Apocalypse and had responded with a sense of urgency instead of remaining in denial throughout most of 2008, things might have been much different.
It's called incompetance and iresponsibility; a trademark of Washington.
See Our Copyright Policy
Copyright © 2008-2015. AVA Investment Analytics, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Restrictions Against Reproduction: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner and the Publisher.
These articles and commentaries cannot be reposted or used in any publications for which there is any revenue generated directly or indirectly. These articles cannot be used to enhance the viewer appeal of any website, including any ad revenue on the website, other than those sites for which specific written permission has been granted. Any such violations are unlawful and violators will be prosecuted in accordance with these laws.
Article 19 of the United Nations' Universal Declaration of Human Rights:
Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
More On Economics