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Why Hyperinflation Isn't Coming To The U.S.
Friday, August 6, 2010, by Stathis
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For more than two years now, many Americans have heard warnings of hyperinflation from the large consensus of misguided individuals, whose agendas serve as the basis for their ridiculous claims.

Much of this nonsense has come from the gold bugs and perma-bears, although it is often difficult to distinguish between the two. Sprouting from this group of fear-mongers is a larger number of naïve followers whose mission is to also be inducted into the media club, while they too profit from selling gold ads and other financial arrangements made with gold dealers.

Many of these individuals spend their entire day watching CNBC and blogging, so as to feed off of the daily smoke-and-mirrors, because they know that millions of sheep continue to watch this trash, despite the fact that CNBC and other financial media establishments are arguably more responsible for your investment losses than even Wall Street.

But it’s important to keep in mind that financial experts don’t spend their days giving television interviews, attending investor conferences and rehashing the daily drama from the financial media. These are marketing activities. Real financial professionals are doing research and servicing their clients. And those in the financial industry don’t spend their day blogging, unless they are starving for business.

Regardless of their position along this food chain of deceit, they are all opportunists. They’ve been trying their hardest to pump up the price of gold, while making ludicrous claims of imminent hyperinflation and a Zimbabwean-like currency devaluation for the dollar.

 

 

 

Some of them know these myths are nothing more than complete fabrications of deception designed to profit from their sheep audience. Others actually believe their mentors who have attained a celebrity status within the media despite their lack of credibility.

But reality does not matter to them. They understand the power of numbers. If something is repeated over and over, most people will believe it. This is one of the most basic tricks used by America’s media monopoly. My advice is to spend less time listening to what you hear and more time researching the full track record of the so-called experts in the media.

Most of the lackeys at the bottom of this food chain of deceit don’t even have a track record. Many have never managed client funds. The only research they do is reading what they come across in the print and broadcast media and adapt it as their own analysis.

As I have discussed on numerous occasions beginning with America’s Financial Apocalypse, gold isn’t a hedge against inflation. My 3-part series “Fool’s Gold” pretty much drove that point into the ground. 

Second, I discussed the fact that hyperinflation is a virtual impossibility in the U.S. for a variety of reasons. I explained many of these points in my article entitled “Don’t Bet on Hyperinflation.”

After presenting a common sense argument debunking the myths about hyperinflation and gold as a hedge against inflation, the gold bugs took the (predictable) route of strategic retreat.

Not a single one of these hacks has challenged my premise about gold or hyperinflation because they can’t. And they don’t have to because they are part of the media club, so their misguided messages are what reach Main Street. This points to not only the mind-boggling level of censorship in the media, but also the lack of honest, unbiased intellectual leaders.  

This depiction of reality further explains why I have been banned by the media, ignored, and in most cases banned from the Internet, for I threaten to destroy this grand party of deceit from which Wall Street, the media and the gold bugs continue to feast. And they’re feasting on your money.

If you have not already familiarized yourself with my track record, I recommend you do so. Then you will understand there are others with good track records and no agendas. You should demand an answer from the media as to why they are supporting the hacks and morons with lousy track records.

The reason is quite simple. They do not want to expose you to the insights of individuals who are dedicated and capable of helping you because YOU don’t pay the bills of the financial media; Wall Street does, so the media serves the agendas of Wall Street. This is why you keep losing money.

The trick used by the media is to air individuals who counter the views of Wall Street so that once these extremists turn out to be wrong, you’ll go back to side with the financial sponsor of the financial media; Wall Street. The media is pulling another fast one on you.

When the Dow bottomed at 6400 in March 2009, most of these so-called experts were telling investors that the stock market was headed much further down, and to stay out. With each passing month since then, they have either cautioned investors to stay out of the stock market, or else to short it. Some even told investors to take 200% leverage and short the stock market by (at least) late 2009! 

 

UPDATE (September 9, 2010): Apparently, Robert Prechter went all out to make sure this story (advising people to short the U.S. stock market using 200% leverage in November 2010) was removed from the public domain so as to hide his horrendous track record, which stretches as far as the eye can see.  Robert, you can run, but you can't hide.

 

That was not only one of the most disastrous pieces of advice I’ve seen in the past few years, I consider it highly irresponsible to be advising such a risky strategy to non-professional investors. I suppose when you have never worked on Wall Street managing assets for clients, you might not truly understand risk and suitability.

The same individual has added to his long list of wrong calls by stating that the Dow could collapse to 1,000.  People need to write this down and never forget it so you will know who to listen to and who to avoid.

I can assure you the only way the Dow would collapse to 1000 is if a large meteor hit Earth, or some other catastrophe of epic proportions that threatened to end life on earth.  

Making claims about the stock market involves much more than looking at “waves.”  You must understand sentiment, global risk, economic growth, market valuation and so on. Even then, the analysis is just a guess. But a forecast of Dow 1,000 falls into the category of delusion.

I urge you to carefully examine EVERYTHING these so-called experts have said and written.

Only then will you realize that they really aren’t experts in anything other than sales and marketing.

If you aren’t sure how to gauge a person’s track record, here’s a decent overview. In general, you should examine five factors when determining someone’s credibility:

 

(1) Professional Training and Experience

Do they work on Wall Street? If so, you should suspect a bias. But someone credible should have spent time on Wall Street managing assets. Still, this is insufficient since most Wall Street professionals are merely salesmen. But they must have some formal training. Having a degree in finance is more of a hindrance than an asset in my view.

 

(2) Agenda or Financial Bias

Does the person stand to benefit financially or politically (also by altering the political landscape) by their views? This does not always mean they lack credibility, but you should always keep it in mind because they may try to manipulate investor sentiment for their financial benefit; examples: analysts, fund managers, gold bugs; those with the same story line for years like perma bulls and perma bears; the extremists.

 

(3) Timing

No prediction, no matter how accurate is worth a damn if you have been crying wolf for many years. The perma bears have been preaching the same doom and gloom lines since the early 1990s; some for much longer. Were you aware of this? While these individuals were betting against the U.S. stock market, they missed out on the biggest bull market in history.

You won’t have any credibility if you aren’t able to get the timing relatively close. You must know when to shift gears because extremes are always dangerous, as are extremists.

Naïve investors buy into extremist views while missing out on tremendous gains because they cannot understand the difference between risk and reality. The gold bugs and perma bears pitched the same lines while the stock market went up by 500% in a decade because doom was their sales pitch.

 

(4) Specificity

Simply predicting “major problems” for the U.S. economy or real estate market is insufficient to make money. And when you make ridiculous claims such as the dollar is going to 0 due to hyperinflation (Schiff and Faber) you have lost all credibility. 

 

(5) Hit-miss Ratio

The guys most guilty of avoiding the hit-miss ratio game are the newsletter clowns. You know who they are (Weiss, Schaeffer, etc.). They have a staff of 2 or 3 dozen writers constantly pumping out “amazing investment opportunities” or selling you fear each day. Of course none of these writers has ever worked on Wall Street. They don’t need to because they are marketers. Between all of the material that gets pumped out, they seem to cover every possibility so that when something happens, they cherry-pick previous predictions, knowing you won’t know better.

Others (Martin Weiss) make ridiculous claims that say they predicted the fall of a bank based on a statement they wrote 60 days before that said “this bank has a terrible balance sheet” or “they risk insolvency.” 

Jim Cramer also plays this game, knowing that none of the sheep who watch him keep a written account of his track record.

Other members of the media club (Schiff, Roubini, Shiller, etc.) benefit from the same strategy because they are rarely held to their previous forecasts, unless they happened to be right, which is rare. They get away with this because most people have very short memories.

As a result of the pervasiveness of these extremists throughout the Internet, print and broadcast media, most of Main Street missed out on the biggest stock market rally since the Great Depression.

If this includes you, don’t ever forget it.

Don’t you think it’s about time you made some changes?

In contrast, as documented in America’s Financial Apocalypse, I made a good case for Dow 6,000, and the book was published in late 2006.

As well, when the Dow hit 6500 a couple of years later, I told investors to start buying. That was the first all-out buy order I had given in years.

Despite my mention that the Dow could go lower, I also realized that if you wait for clear evidence of bottoms, you’ll always miss the boat.

Since then, I have kept investors in the stock market 90% of the time all the way through the spring of 2010. I challenge anyone to identify another individual who was as bearish as I have been who basically predicted the market bottom three years in advance, then came out and released an article into the public domain telling investors to start buying at 6500. 

If the media had not banned me, you would already know about my track record. And if you had listened to my unbiased guidance, you would have avoided huge losses, while making an even larger amount of money. This is indisputable.

I’m telling you this because I want to understand that the media does NOT air real experts. Their job is to help Wall Street take your money.

If they aired credible experts, Wall Street would have a much more difficult time taking your money.

If the media aired credible experts, why do you always get blasted apart in the stock market?

Instead of individuals like me, the media floods you with hacks whose only mission is to sell you gold. Many gold bugs continue to insist that gold is headed to 10,000 or higher, and that the dollar will fall to zero. Others have insisted that gold will never again fall below $1000. The volume of these ridiculous claims about gold is endless. And their lackeys, which are spread throughout the Internet, mirror these delusions when they write articles. It’s truly become a circus show of followers. I call it the media Macarena

I suppose when you stand to benefit by pumping up an asset, the ridiculous claims have no end if you lack integrity. The problem is that as ridiculous as these claims are, the more you hear them, the more you will believe them. The solution is to choose your sources carefully. 

These are just a few examples illustrating the misguided propaganda being spewed out into the media by individuals with clear agendas.

Instead of credible experts, the media selects extremists because they are not credible. They also provide the drama sought out by America’s trash media industry.

In the end, by positioning these individuals as experts, the media fulfills its mission to Wall Street because Main Street will eventually revert back to side with Wall Street once the views of the extremists fail to pan out. 

This is how the game is played. And in the meantime, the extremists line their pockets. Wall Street also lines its pockets. And of course, as a paid whore to Wall Street, the media lines its pockets. Everyone wins in this game of deceit except you. But ultimately, you are to blame because you empower the media by providing an audience. 

It’s easy to take an extreme view of things. You can either preach that the stock market is great, or that it’s poised to collapse. You can make a career of this sales pitch as so many in the media club have done.

If you want to do well with your investments, you are advised to stay far away from sandmen, because eventually, it rains in the desert. In the meantime while you are waiting, you will miss out on tremendous gains.

What’s most important is to know when to shift gears. It’s also important to know when to just stay away altogether. This isn’t something you’re going to hear from the so-called experts who sell securities and gold because they are merely in the business of sales.

Why am I making a big deal of this?

Because it’s a VERY BIG DEAL. If you truly understand the basis of what I am saying, you are likely to view this as one of the most eye-opening investment-related articles you’ve come across in some time. In reality, most readers won’t understand the full nature and consequences of what I’m writing for the same reason that the media continues to get away with mass deception; most people are forever sheep.

If you are making investment decisions based on so-called experts, don’t you think you should find the one with the best track record? Think about it. Then, you’ll realize that those you see on TV, read in the newspapers and websites cannot be relied upon. They either lack real credibility and they have agendas.

Now I’m going to go over some additional reasons why hyperinflation will not occur in the U.S.

Many feel hyperinflation is a certainty due to the printing frenzy by the Fed. Upon first glance, this seems plausible. However, once you use stop and think for a moment, you’ll realize it’s a ridiculous assertion.

Why?

First of all, the banks have held most of this newly printed currency so it hasn’t reached consumers. It’s a well-established fact that bank lending during this economic collapse has been much lower than in previous recessions, dating back to the Great Depression.

Since consumers account for about 70% of the U.S. economy, how can the U.S. experience hyperinflation if consumers aren’t receiving the dollars printed by the Fed?

The banks are using this cash to make risk-free profits via buying U.S. Treasuries. Of course, investors don’t hear this from the financial media, but I can assure you this is what is happening. It should be obvious.

In fact, based on what I see today, I don’t even think the U.S. will experience massive inflation as long as the banks continue to hold onto the money they’ve received from the Fed.

Interest rates ~0% for two years or longer won’t in itself create massive inflation. Ultimately, the money has to be made available to consumers. This is basic economics, but for some reason I’ve never heard this point mentioned anywhere. 

As a caveat, I feel the Fed will intentionally cause inflation in order to pay off the massive federal debt (as I predicted in America’s Financial Apocalypse).

In terms of inflation, oil is the best hedge you can get, specifically, oil securities that pay good dividends. Dividends are the most important thing to own during bear markets. And oil is the best asset to own during inflation. That’s why I like oil securities that pay nice dividends like oil trusts.

Commodities generally provide a good hedge against inflation. But oil is much better because it's more than a commodity. It’s got the dollar-oil link going for it that’s so critical to the U.S. economy. This vital economic link enables the U.S. to export inflation throughout the globe (see here for a discussion on the dollar-oil link).

But let’s assume a magical fantasy occurred; the U.S. experienced hyperinflation. Oil would eventually soar to millions or even billions of dollars per barrel.

So if anything, investors should want to own oil because it’s directly linked to the dollar.  The next best things to have if hyperinflation were to occur in the U.S. would be food, water, guns and bullets, but not gold.

Furthermore, you need to ask yourself the following question. If gold is such a great investment, why is everyone trying to sell it to you? Wouldn’t gold dealers want to hold onto it for themselves if it’s headed to $5000?

 

 

If it's still such a great investment, after having already quadrupled in price in the past ten years; if all these guys out there love it so much why are they so desperate to sell it to you?

Why don't they just hold on to it? 

You certainly don’t see great companies like Microsoft spending millions of dollars for advertisements trying to convince you to buy the stock, but we are now seeing a huge ad campaign by General Electric. Think about it. If you know about the problems GE is having, it should be clear what’s going on. The same can said of gold.

The reason is quite simple. Gold dealers know gold prices are driven by supply and demand. Unlike securities and most other investments, supply and demand for gold is only based on hype; fear, panic and greed, along with market manipulation of course.

In contrast, supply and demand for securities is based on valuation, which is assessed by comparing business risk versus cash dividends, cash flows and earnings growth.

What this means is that gold has no inherent value whatsoever. It doesn’t generate a cash flow based on fundamental economics so it doesn’t generate earnings. There’s no way you can produce an income from gold other than if you are a gold dealer and you sell it to people, unlike silver, which has inherent value. Silver is used extensively throughout industry, so it's an income-producing asset. Gold is not. Gold is kind of like artwork.

One big difference between gold and artwork is that gold is pretty much the same wherever you buy it; it’s considered a commodity. And it trades on global markets. Therefore, unlike artwork, which can command a certain price from one prospective buyer and a different price from another, gold is invariable and trades on a huge market made up of buyers and sellers.

And because gold is the same wherever you buy it, the price reflects what the world wants to pay for it. Because the gold market is global, it’s bought and sold with more efficient or uniform pricing than artwork.

On the other hand, you can get a kid to paint a picture and claim it was painted by an eccentric artist who died last year, take it to an auction in NYC, and it might sell for $100,000.

That same painting, if auctioned off in Europe or China might sell for $500, or maybe even $50,000; no one really knows what it might sell for. It depends a lot on how it’s marketed. It’s also based on individual taste.

Gold pricing is similar in some respects, unless of course people detect fake gold, which I can assure you is all over the globe. Excluding this scenario, because gold is the same wherever you buy it, and because it’s traded on large organized markets around the globe, the price is fixed at any point in time. This is the main difference I see between artwork and gold. Neither has inherent value. They only have perceived value based on supply and demand, but not need or utility.

A great deal of this demand for gold has arisen from many myths propagated by gold dealers, gold bugs and talk show hosts. This is all marketing, similar to the marketing used to sell artwork.

One of the main myths being spread is that gold is a great hedge against inflation. This is not true. It's a hedge against deflation. It's a hedge against market declines. It’s a hedge against crises. And it should be traded rather than held because it's very volatile.

Crises are typically shorter-term events. Deflation is typically a short-term event. Market sell-offs are typically short-term events. This is why gold is a hedge against these things. It serves as a short-term place for funds to park their cash.

Now if you look at the appreciation of gold over the past several years, you can see where it spiked after a crisis. Thereafter, when panic subsided, gold prices fell back to levels similar to before the crisis or lower.

In March 2008, gold soared during the run on Bear Stearns, but traded back down after JP Morgan took over. A few months later during news of Lehman’s bankruptcy gold soared again, but traded back down thereafter and so on.

What about the fact that gold has risen nicely for nearly a decade?

Of course it has; it’s been in a bull market just as it remained largely flat for the previous twenty years when it was in a bear market. The price appreciation in gold has had nothing to do with inflation. It’s been rising due to speculation and manipulation of the masses.

But the gold bull market isn’t going to last forever. And when it cycles back into a bear market, it will remain there for many, many years. So those who hold gold need to have an exit strategy in advance. Otherwise, they will be like investors who bought gold in the late 70s and early 80s at close to $800/ounce, and are still waiting to break even from its inflation-adjusted price of about $2200.

If gold was truly a hedge against inflation, it would move along with inflation year after year, but that hasn’t been the case. If you examine the price of gold in the 80s and 90s, and plot it against inflation, you can see it underperformed.

Let’s look at a more recent period. When inflation was soaring in the first half of 2008, what did the price of gold do? It didn’t rise; it fell. Keep in mind this occurred even when gold was in its bull market. Investors have confused the current gold bull market with it being a hedge against inflation. They need to understand the difference.

As evidence that I’m not some gold basher, in America’s Financial Apocalypse I actually predicted gold to reach $1,400 by 2012/14; that was when it was about $600 four years ago. And I said it could reach the $2,000, maybe even $2200 a few years thereafter. But that doesn’t mean it's time to buy now. I made those forecasts when gold was around $600. Since then, the price of gold has doubled. 

Remember, the higher the price of an asset rises, the higher the risk becomes; mainly liquidity risk. This is especially the case with gold for two reasons. First, gold’s bull/bear market cycle is very long, as mentioned. So if you get stuck in gold when it falls from a bull to bear market, you’ll have to wait a long time in order to break even.

Second, as I stated previously, gold has no inherent value. For instance, if you buy shares of Microsoft at $50 and it collapses to $20, you’d still own shares of Microsoft. You would see a loss on paper but it's an income-producing asset, so it has an inherent value. It’s a real business that generates cash flows and earnings. It even provides a nice cash dividend to common shares.

That dividend actually serves as a partial hedge against inflation because you receive quarterly dividends. If you have to wait ten years for shares to rise back to your original $50 cost, you’ll be receiving cash dividends throughout that period, which will lower your cost basis.

Gold is a much different story. If you buy gold at $1,300 and it comes back down to $300, what do you have? Not much. You have to wait many years, maybe decades before you break even. And while you’re waiting, you get no dividends.

That said, gold will still probably continue to go up over the next couple of years, but at some point I can tell you it will deflate back down to $300 or $400. And it's going to stay there for a very long time.

I spotted the gold bull market in late 2001. I was bullish on gold for many years, but it’s become a very risky asset for entry at these levels. I sold all of my gold between 2008 and 2009 and haven’t looked back.

Now that doesn’t mean I won’t reenter, but right now I have no interest because I understand two things: gold has no inherent value, and the large appreciation has increased the risk.

So, I want to caution investors who might want to buy gold because Glenn Beck or others with similar credibility and clear financial agendas, like the gold bugs say it will protect you against “hyperinflation,” or the “collapse of the dollar.”

 

 

As I have been saying since the release of America’s Financial Apocalypse, if you buy gold, you should use it more for short-term trading. Trade the volatility, take advantage of that volatility or use it as a hedge against market declines, but don't just stockpile it without any exit strategy like so many are doing.

If in fact gold is such a great investment, why are gold companies forking out millions of dollars to TV and radio hosts to endorse it?

As Peter Schiff continues to leverage his undeserved media celebrity status into a Senate seat, he has been asking his lackey followers (who still have no idea just how wrong he has been) to donate to his campaign

If Peter Schiff needs money for his campaign race, why doesn’t he submit his entry for my $100,000 reward which is to be presented to the first person who can demonstrate that someone in the world that has matched my own track record through this economic collapse? 

I urge you all to spend sufficient time going over archives or the so-called experts you follow, document what they have said, then familiarize yourself with my track record. Once you have done so, if your head is on straight I wouldn’t expect you to try and claim the reward. But by all means, give it your best shot.

Ask Marc Faber, Nouriel Roubini, Peter Schiff, Barry Ritholtz, John Mauldin, Robert Prechter, Robert Shiller, Jim Cramer, Doug Kass, and hundreds of others in the media club to submit their own entry. Better yet, if you think these guys have a clue, you are free to submit their track record as a chance to claim the reward for yourself.

So then, if the U.S. is not going to encounter hyperinflation, what will it be?

Will it be deflation? Will it be heightened inflation? Will it be both? 

More important, how can investors protect their portfolio and exploit the devastating economics of America’s second Great Depression? These answers and much more can be found by subscribing to the AVA Investment Analytics newsletter.

One thing is for certain. You aren’t going to find the answer to these questions from anyone in the media; print, broadcast or Internet. History serves as my best witness on this account.

Those who read America's Financial Apocalypse (2006) and Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble (2007) were not only alerted to the catastrophe we see today, but were provided with SPECIFIC ways to profit that have yielded over 100% gains since then. 

If you want access to institutional-level research, analysis and investment guidance, subscribe to the AVA Investment Analytics newsletter today.

As you might imagine, this article (like most of my others) has been banned throughout the Internet. You aren't going to find it anywhere else for a very good reason. Everyone out there is committed to deceiving you for their own interests. Thus, you can help others by spreading this article all over the Internet.

Remember that this information will have no real impact unless YOU spread it around. The more people who come to realize the truth about the media liars and snake oil salesmen, the better chance things will come to an end.

 

 

 

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