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The Dow Takes Everything Down With It, EXCEPT
Tuesday, May 4, 2010, by Stathis
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Rather than a sigh of relief, Greece's bailout signals more to come from Eastern Europe.  And rather than a more peaceful Greece, it the EU-IMF bailout is likely to result in major riots and civil unrest due to harsh demands placed on many segments of this nation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average revealed worries by investors, fearing much more to come from Europe (forget the S&P 500, the DJIA is and will always be the key index to watch; if you follow the S&P it's because you have been programmed by the clowns in the media, who follow Wall street hacks like a lost puppy).

With the DJIA down by over 225 points (2.02%), by itself, it means nothing.

However, those who have (hopefully) finished reading the May newsletter by now realize this could spell big trouble for the market. Specifically, I pointed to a certain region to keep a watchful eye on. 

By the time we head into early to mid-June, it is likely that we will know where the market is headed on a more long-term basis. 

While even most of the big-name stocks took a dive today, there were a few exceptions noteworthy of mention.

First, GS. While it closed down by a mere $0.05, it was actually up for nearly half of the trading session before losing the day's gains in the closing hour. I view this as a siginificant event.

As you can see from the chart below, Goldman is closing in on erasing losses relative to the Dow despite the most recent announcement by the DoJ of a criminal investigation.

With so much uncertainty remaining, I am willing to bet that GS has considerable downside in the coming weeks, irrespective of the market direction. I am even more confident Goldman will underperform the market during this period (in other words, even if the market heads up, Goldman will linger).

 

Another surprise was MA. After beating estimates by a considerable margin, shares closed up by $0.51 at $251.25 (0.20%); not much, but quite nice given the big sell-off in the market. Even is rival, V was down for the day.

Finally, BP ended the day up by $1.01 (2.02%) at $51.20; the exact oppostive of the slide in the DJIA.

This is especially surprising, given the uncertainty of the oil spill, as well as the media blitz that continues non-stop.

You might recall that shares mounted a strong late-day session on Monday, after falling by nearly 9% early in the session on very heavy trading volume.

My guess is that Wall Street has come in to defend shares, prematurely I might add. I have no idea what will happen over the next few days, but I do NOT feel that it has bottomed. The strength of the move in shares is likely to end up being a suckers rally down the road.

 

 

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