"There are two sorts of wealth-getting, as I have said; one is a part of household management, the other is retail trade: the former necessary and honorable, while that which consists in exchange is justly censured; for it is unnatural, and a mode by which men gain from one another. The most hated sort, and with the greatest reason, is usury, which makes a gain out of money itself, and not from the natural object of it. For money was intended to be used in exchange, but not to increase at interest. And this term interest, which means the birth of money from money, is applied to the breeding of money because the offspring resembles the parent. Wherefore of modes of getting wealth this is the most unnatural."

- Politics, Aristotle, 350 B.C.

"The Jew alone regards his race as superior to humanity, and looks forward not to its ultimate union with other races, but to its triumph over them all and to its final ascendancy under the leadership of a tribal Messiah."

- Goldwin Smith, The Jewish Question, October 1881

“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.”

- President Woodrow Wilson 1916

“We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries.”

- David Rockefeller, Baden-Baden, Germany 1991

“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”

- Henry Ford 

“The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the larger centers has owned the Government ever since the days of Andrew Jackson.”

- Franklin D. Roosevelt, letter to Col. House, November 21, l933

“One of the least understood strategies of the world revolution now moving rapidly toward its goal is the use of mind control as a major means of obtaining the consent of the people who will be subjects of the New World Order.”

- The National Educator, K.M. Heaton

"We Jews, we, the destroyers, will remain the destroyers for ever. Nothing that you will do will meet our needs and demands. We will for ever destroy because we need a world of our own, a God-world, which it is not in your nature to build."

- Maurice Samuels, You Gentiles, 1924

“We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis and the nations will accept the New World Order.”

- David Rockefeller 

“Today, America would be outraged if U.N. troops entered Los Angeles to restore order. Tomorrow they will be grateful! This is especially true if they were told that there were an outside threat from beyond, whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. It is then that all peoples of the world will plead to deliver them from this evil. The one thing every man fears is the unknown. When presented with this scenario, individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well-being granted to them by the World Government.”

- Dr. Henry Kissinger, Bilderberger Conference, Evians, France, 1991

How to Think Clearly

"Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." –Mark Twain

If you want to begin to understand and appreciate the work of Mike Stathis, from his market forecasts and securities analysis to his political and economic analysis, you will first need to learn how to think clearly. For many, this will be a cleansing process that could take quite a long time to complete depending on each individual.

The best way to begin to clear your mind is to first move forward with this series of steps:

1. GET RID OF YOUR TV SET (at least cancel your cable)


3. DO NOT USE A "SMART PHONE" (or at least do not use your phone to access the internet)


The cleansing process will take time but you can hasten the process by being proactive in exercising your mind.

You should also be aware of a very common behavior exhibited by humans who have been exposed to the various aspects of modern society. This behavior occurs when an individual overestimates his abilities and knowledge, while underestimating his weaknesses and lack of understanding. This behavior has been coined the "Dunning-Kruger Effect" after to sociologists who described it in a research publication. See here.

Many people today think they are virtual experts on every topic they regard with relevance. The reason for this illusory behavior is because these individuals typically allow themselves to become brainwashed by various media outlets. The more information these individuals obtain on these topics from the media, the more qualified they feel they are in these subjects, without realizing that the media is not a valid source with which to use for understanding something. The media always has bias and can never be relied on to represent the full truth.

A perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen with many individuals who listen to talk radio shows. These shows are politically biased and consist of individuals who resemble used car salesmen more than intellectuals. These talking heads brainwash their audience with cherry-picked facts, misstatements and lies regarding relevant issues such as healthcare, immigration, Social Security, Medicaid, economics, science, and so forth. They also select guests for interview based on the agendas they wish to fulfill with their advertisers.

Once their audience has been indoctrinated by these propagandists, they feel qualified to discuss these topics on the same level as a real authority, without realizing that they obtained their understanding from individuals who are employed as professional liars and manipulators by the media.  Another good example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen upon examination of political pundits, stock market and economic analysts on TV.  They talk a good game because they are professional speakers. But once you examine their track record, it is clear that these individuals are largely wrong, but they have developed an inflated sense of expertise and knowledge on topics for which they continuously demonstrate their incompetence.

One of the most insightful analogies created to explain how things are often not what you see was Plato's Allegory of the Cave, from Book 7 of the Republic.

We highly recommend that you study this masterpiece in great detail so that you are better able to use logic and reason.Although we recommend you read and study The Allegory of the Cave, you can get a flavor for its meaning by watching the following video. 

If you can learn how to think like a philosopher, specifically one of the great ancient Greek philosophers, it is highly unlikely that you will ever be fooled by con artists like those who make ridiculous and unfounded claims in order to pump gold and silver, the typical get-rich-quick or multi-level marketing (MLM) crowd.

STOP Being Taken

“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.”

King James Bible - Matthew 7:15

"It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." –Mark Twain

All Viewpoints Are Not Created Equal Just because something is published in print, online or aired in the broadcast media does not make it accurate.  In fact, more often than not the larger the audience, the more likely the content is either inaccurate or slanted. The next time you read something about economics or investments, you should ask two main questions in order to assess the credibility of the source. Is the source biased in any way?   That is, do they have any agendas which would provide any type of benefit accounting for their views? Most individuals either sell ads on their site or are dealers of precious metals or securities. That means their views are biased and cannot be relied upon.

Is your source is credible?  

Most people associate credibility with name-recognition. But more often than not, name-recognition serves as a predictor of bias if not lack of credibility because the more a name is recognized, the more the individual has been plastered in the media. And every intelligent person knows that individuals who have been provided with media exposure because they are either naive or clueless. The media positions these types of individuals as “credible experts” in order to please its financial sponsors; Wall Street. 

Instead of name-recognition or media celebrity status, you must determine whether your source has relevant experience on Wall Street as opposed to being self-taught. But this is just a basic hurdle that in itself by no means ensures the source is competent or credible. More important, always examine the track record of your source in depth, looking for accuracy and specific forecasts rather than open-ended statements. You must also look for timing since a broken clock is always right once a day.  Finally, make sure they do not cherry-pick their best calls. Always examine their entire track record. 

“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.”

King James Bible - Matthew 7:15

The above questions require only slight modification for use in determining the credibility of sources that discuss other topics, such as politics, healthcare, etc.We have compiled the most extensive publication exposing hundreds of con men pertaining to the financial publishing and securities industry, although we also cover numerous con men in the media and other front groups since they are all associated in some way with each other. There is perhaps no one else in the world capable of shedding the full light on these con men other than Mike Stathis. Mike has been studying the indistry for well over a decade. Alhough he has published numerous articles and videos addressing this dark side of the industry, the entire collection can be found in our ENCYCLOPEDIA of Bozos, Hacks, Snake Oil Salesmen and Faux Heroes
At AVA Investment Analytics, we don't try to pump gold, silver or equities like many others you see because we are not promoters or marketers. And we do not receive any compensation whatsoever (including from ads) from our content. We provide individual investors, financial advisers, analysts and fund managers with world-class research, education and unique insight.

Media Lies

If you listen to the media, most likely it is costing you hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost money at minimum over the course of your lifetime. The deceit, lies and useless guidance from the financial media certainly is a large contributor of these losses to the sheep you pay attention.

But a good deal of lost wealth comes in the form of excessive consumerism which the media seeks to impose on its audience. You aren’t going to know that you’re being brainwashed or that you have lost $1 million or $2 million over your life time due to the media, but I can guarantee you that with rare exception this is the reality for those who are naïve enough to waste time on the media.

It gets worse. By listening to the media, you are likely to also suffer ill health effects through the lack of timely coverage of toxic prescription drugs or through the ridiculous medical shows, all of which are supportive of the medical-industrial complex.

And if you seek out the so-called "alternative media" you might make the mistake of relying on con men like Kevin Trudeau or Alex Jones. This could be a deadly decision. As bad as traditional media is, the so-called "alternative media" is even worse.

Why Does the Media Air Liars and Con Men?

The goal of the media is NOT to serve its audience because the audience does NOT pay the bills.

The goal of the media is to please its sponsors, or the companies that spend huge dollars buying ads, and in order for companies to justify these expenses, they need the media to represent their cause. The media does this by airing idiots and con men who mislead and confuse their audience.

By engaging in "journalistic fraud," the media steers its audience into the arms of its advertisers because the audience is now misled and confused, so in the case of the financial media, it seeks the assistance of Wall Street brokerage firms, mutual funds, insurance companies, precious metals dealers. This is why advertisers pay big money to be promoted in the financial media.

We see the same thing on a more obvious note in the so-called "alternative media," which is really a remanufactured version of the so-called "mainstream media." Do not be fooled. There is no such thing as the "alternative media." 

In order to be considered "media" you must have content that has widespread channels of distribution. Thus, all "media" is widely distributed and the same powers that control the distribution of the so-called "mainstream media" also control the distribution of the so-called "alternative media."

The claim that there is an "alternative media" is merely a sales pitch designed to capture the audience that has since given up on the "mainstream media."  The tactic is a very common one used by con men.

The same tactic is used by Washington to convince naive voters that there are meaningful differences between the nation's two political parties. In reality, both parties are essentially the same when it comes to issues that matter most (trade policy, healthcare and war). Anyone who tells you anything different simply isn't thinking straight.

On this site, we expose the lies and the liars in the media. We discuss and reveal the motives and track record of the media’s hand-selected charlatans with a focus on the financial media.  

Why Stathis Was Banned

No one has generated a more accurate track record in the investment markets over the past several years than Mike Stathis. Yet, the financial media wants nothing to do with Stathis.

You aren't even going to hear him on the radio being interviewed.

You aren't going to see him mentioned on any websites either.

You won't read or hear of his remarkable track record unless you read about it on this website or read his books.

You should be wondering why this might be. Some of you already know the answer.

The media has banned Mike Stathis because the trick is to air clowns so that the audience will be steered into the hands of the media's financial sponsors - Wall Street and gold dealers.

And as for the radio shows and websites that either don't know about Stathis or don't care to hear what he has to say, the fact is that they are so stupid that they assume those who are plastered in the media are credible. And since they haven't seen or heard Stathis in the media, even if they come across him, they automatically assume he's a nobody in the investment world simply because he has no media exposure.

Well, if media exposure was a testament to knowledge, credibility and excellent track records, Peter Schiff's clients would be a lot happier when they looked at their account balance.

Others only care about pitching what’s deemed as the “hot” topic because this sells ads in terms of more site visits or reads. This is why you come across so many websites based on doom and conspiratorial horse shit run by con artists looking to cash in on ads.

We have donated countless hours and huge sums of money towards the pursuit of exposing the con men, lies and fraud. We continue this mission but we cannot continue it forever without your assistance.

We have been banned by virtually every media platform in the U.S and every website (mainly because we expose the truth about gold and silver).

We have been banned from use of email marketing providers.

The fact is that the Jewish Mafia has declared war on us because we have exposed the realities of the U.S. government, Wall Street and corporate America.

Note that we only began discussing the role of Jews in criminality by 2009, three years AFTER we had been black-listed by the media, so no one can say that our criticism of the Jewish Mafia has led to being black-listed, not that it would even be acceptable.

You can talk about the Italian Mafia, and Jewish Hollywood can make 100s of movies about it...


We rely on you to help spread the word about us. Just remember this. We don’t have to do what we are doing.

We could do as everyone else and focus on making money. We are doing sacrificing everything because in this day and age, unfortunately, the truth is revolutionary. It is also critical in order to prevent the complete enslavement of world citizenry.   

Rules to Remember

On Exposure: No one who has significant exposure can be trusted because those who are responsible for permitting such exposure have allowed it for a very good reason, and that reason does not serve your best interests.

On Spotting Frauds: Whenever you wish to know whether someone can be trusted, always remember this golden rule..."a man is judged by the company he keeps."

This is a very important rule to remember because con men almost always belong to the same network.

You will see the same con artists referencing each other, on blog rolls and so forth.

  • How to Think Clearly
  • STOP Being Taken
  • Media Lies
  • Why Stathis Was Banned
  • Rules to Remember
  • X close

The Plain Truth

NOTE: Mike Stathis predicted the precise details of the financial crisis in his 2006 book, America's Financial Apocalypse.

The Jewish Mafia REFUSED to publish this landmark book because it exposed the widespread fraud committed by the Jewish Mafia.

Instead, the Jewish Mafia published useless marketing books written by their broken clock tribemens (like Peter Schiff's useless book which was wrong about most things and was written a year AFTER Stathis' book).

Stathis also released a book focusing on strategies to profit from the real estate collapse in early 2007.

The Jewish media crime bosses prefer to simply ignore those who speak the truth and threaten to expose them as the best way to hide the scams from the public.

In contrast, the Jewish media crime bosses continuously promote Jewish con men and clowns who have terrible track records as a way to enrich them all while steering the audience to their sponsors, most of which are Jewish Wall Street and related firms. Figure it out folks. It's not rocket science.


View Mike Stathis' Track Record here, herehere, here, here, here and here.



Membership Resources




Mike Stathis holds the best investment forecasting track record in the world since 2006.

View Mike Stathis' Track Record here, herehere, here, here, here and here.





So why does the media continue to BAN Stathis? 


Why does the media constantly air con men who have lousy track records?

These are critical questions to be answered.

You need to confront the media with these questions. 

Watch the following videos and you will learn the answer to these questions:

You Will Lose Your Ass If You Listen To The Media












My 2 cents on the Bailout

Rather than accept the bailout of Fannie and Freddie, Americans need to start asking some critical questions to our leaders. If they were “too big to fail” as Paulson, Bush, Bernanke and other cronies insist, why were they allowed to operate with exemptions from the SEC Acts of 1933 and 1934?

If they were “too big to fail” why didn’t Washington take over the GSEs in 2004 after the accounting fraud was detected.

If they were “too big to fail” why were they transformed into shareholder firms with virtually no regulation, no accountability, no transparency and allowed to act irresponsibly?

The implied backing by the government made it certain that a bailout was eminent. But doesn’t government backing also come with accountability? You might want to review a couple of articles I wrote a while back on Fannie and Freddie.   

Anyone who believes the losses from Fannie and Freddie will be limited to Washington’s $25 billion figure is naïve. Keep believing the same liars who have done nothing but mislead you throughout this entire crisis and you will be left with nothing. I’m confident the losses will be at minimum $100 billion, and possibly $200 billion. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the losses were higher. 

More Pandering

McCain and Obama talk about the need for more accountability, specifically in the financial industry. Apparently, they don’t seem to understand the meaning of the word. Accountability to me means those who engage in unfair business practices, fraud and other exploitative activities face the jury. Yet, Franklin Raines, former CEO of Fannie Mae is doing quite well after accounting fraud was exposed under his watch.

Let me be clear. In my opinion, Mr. Raines belongs in prison, along with hundreds and perhaps thousands of others who orchestrated this catastrophe with reckless disregard for anyone except their own selfish greed. Instead, Obama is consulting him for advice on the housing crisis. What a huge mistake. 

More Lies from Bush

Bush told Americans this bailout would ensure a more stable housing market for Americans. What he didn’t say is the obvious….it isn’t going to help current homeowners. This record-setting bailout only works to refuel America’s swollen credit bubble. And in the process, it only helps the banks.

If taxpayers are going to fit the bill for this mess, don’t you think all executives from Fannie and Freddie from the past 8 years should be forced to return all compensation they received? If they don’t think that is fair, ask them what they think about a 10-year prison sentence. 

Short-term Implications

In the short-term, mortgage rates will drop since credit and liquidity risk for the mortgage machine has eased. In addition, the dollar will rise (as long as no new banking concerns surface) while gold and oil will fall (independent of any weather related damage in the Gulf or announcements by OPEC to cut production).

But the problem isn’t so much that consumers can’t find good mortgage rates. Rates have been very low for many years. The real problem is trying to convince people to buy homes as prices continue to fall while inflation soars. The idiots in Washington seem to think we can consume our way out of this mess and they will be proven wrong…again, just as they were a few years ago.

So for now, forget Fannie and Freddie. It was obvious what would happen. It’s a played-out soap opera for now. If it wasn’t obvious for months what would happen, you might consider changing who you listen to for insight. I won’t waste any more time dealing with this issue until after November, when the ultimate direction of the GSEs has been determined by the next president.

And if you think the bailout will give the stock market a permanent boost you should apply for a spot on CNBC because you have no idea what’s going on. We are just now in the early stages of the de-leveraging process. And it’s going to get really nasty, not just in the US, but around the globe. 

More Realities on Greenspan

In 2006, I proved irrefutably in Ph.D. thesis-like fashion that the economy was very weak, with no real improvements registered since the dotcom collapse. This thesis was turned into a book, America’s Financial Apocalypse, originally meant for institutional investors but later revised for the average Joe. Yet, it took a lot longer to write than Alan Greenspan’s mysterious Ph.D. thesis, which for some reason NYU has refused to release. Hey Alan, are you going to come clean? At least admit you screwed the US economy and the American people. It might actually improve your horrendous reputation.  See here and here.

While millions of consumers are struggling, Alan Bubblespan appears to be doing quite well. He now works for Paulson & Co., which gladly hired him after clearing $13 billion from the sub-prime mess. That’s $13 billion transferred from previous homeowners to a hedge fund, compliments of the Bubble Maestro. The man obviously has no conscious.

Let’s forget about Alan for now. The history books will take care of him. I want to move forward and focus on what’s next since I haven’t seen many out there with the insight and motivation to tell you. Those who have been reading my articles and books or listening to me on the radio know I have been dead right. I’ll review some of these forecasts shortly.

History Always Repeats

Can you imagine what would happen to the bank, Wall Street, real estate and mortgage executives if they were in China? They wouldn’t be around by now. But this is America, where CEOs commit accounting, shareholder and taxpayer fraud, destroy companies and leave with $200 million while taxpayers and investors end up screwed.

It’s happened in the past; not just during the dotcom bubble but over and over for decades. And of course it’s happening now. You better believe it’s going to happen again and again unless you call for the heads of these crooks and vote every single member of Congress out of office.

As we know, politicians will call for action and accountability but only a few scapegoats will be selected - a couple of guys from Bear Stearns, Credit Suisse and a few others. But not the CEOs. Never the CEOs. That would be un-American.

Let me be clear. America is a mess and Washington is a joke. If there is no real punishment for negligence and fraud, of course they aren’t going to be on the ball. Of course it’s going to happen again. It’s the same rules of conduct for CEOs.

President Bush has created quite a legacy for himself. One that might only be equaled only by Alan Greenspan. But of course most people have short memories. As a consequence, it is likely that in the future, there will be another Bush in office and another Greenspan as Fed chairman. Now I understand why it’s so important to study history.

I Repeat…

I continue to be amazed by so many out there, from the pundits with their agendas to the so-called experts who zoom in on every grain of short-term optimism with an electron microscope while explaining away the reality. Not much has changed since I last wrote. Let me repeat in case you haven’t been following me. We are going to see…

  • An earnings meltdown
  • Hundreds of bank failures over the next few years
  • Hundreds of hedge fund blow ups
  • Soaring corporate defaults (already beginning)
  • A huge junk bond market (soon to come)
  • A large oil correction which will rebound and make new highs down the road (in progress)
  • Real estate prices collapse by 30% (35% worst case scenario)
  • DJIA falling to the low 10,000, and possibly to the 9000s thereafter
  • And probably somewhat of an improvement in certain sections of the economy in 2009, specifically housing, due to a decrease in ARM resets
  • Soaring problems in housing in 2010 and 2011.
  • Soaring mortgage and interest rates in 2011
  • Global recession
  • 15 million foreclosures by 2016 (this 2006 estimate will probably be too low)
  • Several defaults by US cities
  • Resurfacing of the pension crisis
  • Bailout for banks, autos and airlines
  • A rebound in the global economy in a few years for most nations with Asian and Latin America leading the way, while the USA lingers
  • I can almost guarantee you that by 2012, oil, gold and inflation will be at new highs while the dollar will have reached new lows.

Take note that many of these forecasts were made in 2006 and have not been changed. Now if we could just find one Washington or academic economist who made forecasts beyond a month that held up, we might be getting somewhere. Don’t hold your breath.

If you think I’m a perma bear or some doom and gloomer you are very wrong. I am a realist and I get paid to be right. I don’t get paid to sell anyone lies like most of the pundits.

Remember, I’m not selling anyone one gold or some bear fund. I’m writing to expose these liars and guide you through this disaster.

I’m writing to help you understand that you need to stop listening to the media because they are lying.

Some of them are just that stupid that they believe the crap they are fed by Washington and the “experts.” When the US economy turns around you had better believe I will be the first to write about it with excitement. Based upon the changes needed, I do not anticipate that happening for several years. 

There is only one way to stop the pain. Let the wounds bleed out and heal on their own. Thereafter, healthcare must be universal, free trade must be restructured, and America’s badly broken free market system must be restructured.

Unfortunately, those reforms simply aren’t going to happen as long as the media continues to lie and as long as lobbyists exist, because as you might realize by now, corporate America controls Washington. And together with the banks, the media has partnered with these elitists to maintain their control. 

Dollar Bulls Watch Out Below

Now let’s focus on the dollar because quite frankly I’m getting a bit annoyed at those who are claiming the rally is real. Anyone who is remotely familiar with asset price movements knows that even the biggest declines are eventually met with corrections, just like soaring oil is correcting.

You’ll recall I first mentioned the likelihood of a 30% to 40% correction when oil was making its highs, so the current sell-off is not at all surprising. The key thing to focus on is the long-term trend. Until it changes you need to understand that the dollar is headed for new lows. I cannot say when. But I will guarantee you it is unless there are significant fundamental changes, which would take several years of very aggressive domestic and foreign economic reform.

Keep in mind that the weakness in the dollar is a reflection of the inherent weakness in the US economy. The dollar is the tail of the economy. And as we know, the tail does not wag the dog unless you live in la-la land like so many in Washington.

So for those of you who seem to think that a strong dollar will strengthen the economy you are wrong. Only by creating a strong economy will the dollar strengthen. And I am talking about a truly strong economy; one that creates high-quality jobs in America, not overseas; one that leads to surpluses instead of deficits. And one that leads to affordable basic necessities. In fact, the only recent strength in the economy has been due to a weak dollar which has boosted exports. 

Once again, if you dare venture into the US stock market, I advise you stick to health care and oil. I like UnitedHealth (recently sold and waiting for the pullback to bottom) and Pfizer.

As for oil, I advise you to stick with the oil trusts. It’s a great time to enter (or reenter) positions in some of these trusts like I plan to do. I’ll add that some of the oil explorers are beginning to look attractive, but I currently do not see anything absolutely compelling.

If you want an idea where oil is ultimately headed, ask God. Anyone who claims they know for certain is either an idiot or lying. For whatever it’s worth, I made some forecasts a month ago, which show probabilities for each price ranges. Of course there are always a few other names in other industries that will have very compelling valuations, but my call on healthcare and oil is for passive investors. 

If I turn out to be right, the smart money is gearing up to short the dollar and buy oil….not now, but soon. As well, they are waiting for compelling buy signals for gold and silver. For now, the GSE bailout is sure to force both down. The suckers are loading up on the dollar. What they fail to realize is that the real dollar crisis has yet to occur. 

Fooling You with Simpleton Arguments

The pundits and economists continue to make simpleton arguments, such as the current conditions are no way like the depression.

They claim that the government made many changes that would prevent the same thing from happening again.

They claim that depressions cause deflation.

Sure. But that does not mean inflation cannot be the lead into a depression. 

If things are so different now, why is the US approaching the price declines in real estate seen during the depression?

If things are so different now, why has the Fed had to resort to measures not seen since the depression?

If things are so different now, why did the New Deal solution to the depression era real estate crisis (Fannie Mae) collapse?

All of you guys in denial really need to get with the program. 

The Next Great Depression

No we won’t see 33% unemployment like in the depression. Why?

Well for starters, Washington fudges all of the data. I have discussed this in detail in the past.

As well, the bar for what are considered jobs has been lowered since the depression. Today, you can say you’re employed if you’re a part-timer, you work at McDonalds, you’re a valet or massage therapist (no disrespect to any of you who might be employed in these occupations but let’s face it, they don’t give you a pension plan or healthcare benefits).

Instead of massive unemployment, we will see significant unemployment combined with massive underemployment. Already, my estimates are that the real unemployment rate is approaching 9% while the underemployment rate is 20 to 25%.

Over the next few years, the underemployment rate will continue to increase and could top 50%. As well, we won’t see banks close their doors because we have the FDIC. Sure, it will run out of reserves most likely within the next 2 years, but that doesn’t matter because the Fed will just print more money, causing higher inflation. All of this will put further downward pressure on living standards.

The devastation won’t be due to a crisis, it will be only heightened by a crisis. The real devastation will be due to the transfer of wealth and jobs overseas. It will be a silent depression. 

The Silent Depression

In a few years, the real estate and banking crisis will have cooled off and Washington will start reporting much improved numbers; numbers that will continue to be manipulated.

In reality, things will only get worse. Real wages won’t budge, inflation for basic necessities will remain high and most likely be higher, and job quality will continue to decline. It will be a silent depression because there will be no crisis.

You won’t feel the full effects on any given day. If you’re in the lucky majority, you will go to work and carry out your life as usual. But you just won’t be able to make ends meet like in the past. Each year things will get worse so you’ll spend more on credit.

It will be more difficult for your children to raise their income status because higher education is becoming an unaffordable luxury for the wealthy. Millions will be stuck in slave labor, working for low wages and no benefits. And they won’t be working in factories churning out goods for the global economy. They will be working in service jobs, tailoring to the needs of America’s wealthy.

And when you retire, only then will you realize that you’ve lived through a depression because you will run out of money. If you are lucky enough to have a home, you might have to end up selling it to pay for your medical bills, even if you have health insurance. The smaller minority will have a much worse fate.

What the “experts” don’t get is that this will be a depression that will be much more difficult to reverse because it will be gradual. There will be no urgency.

Many will wake up one day in a few years and realize that they just can’t make ends meet; they’ll have very little if any retirement assets. It will be a continuation of declining living standards to a point that could lead to some major societal problems. 

So What’s Next

Before I give you my best guess as to the future, you might want to check back to an article I wrote on May 4, 2008 because it sums up the big picture. 

Besides the forecasts discussed above, I am willing to bet there will be a massive collapse of the CDS market. I have mentioned this several months ago but it is worth mentioning again. Most likely, once the newly proposed changes for these derivatives take affect in a few months, Washington will think the problem has been fixed.

But I’m willing to bet we are going to see a huge derivatives meltdown which will most likely be triggered by hedge fund failures. Whatever happens, I can state with confidence that the end is far from over. Remember, most banks still have to unwind the 30x leverage. And the margin requirements are increasing each day for hedge funds. The winding down process is going to create a global apocalypse. YOU HAD BETTER BE PREPARED.

On a positive note, it’s not the end of the world so go out and have a beer and try to humor yourself while making fun of all of the dirty, rotten, crooked, lying idiots who robbed you blind. Meanwhile, they’ll be sitting in their yachts waiting for the storm to pass so they can get in on the next scam. This is the reality of America after all.  


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